Ukraine's Membership Would Turn the EU Upside Down

Ukraine's accession would completely upset the EU’s voting dynamics, potentially granting Ukraine as much influence over the bloc’s decisions as Poland. However, the situation is far from straightforward; the basic prerequisites for accession include determining the extent of territory controlled by the Ukrainian government and the country’s exact population. Due to the ongoing war, however, even these seemingly simple questions remain unanswered. In this installment of our series examining Ukraine’s potential EU membership, we’ve compiled the arguments for and against the country’s accession and discussed what it would mean from the perspective of the war if a nation currently engaged in miliraty conflict were admitted to the EU.

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (Photo: Hans Lucas via AFP)

Turning the EU on its head

Beyond the pros and cons, Ukraine’s membership raises questions about its impact on EU institutions and the economy.

In 2023, Politico published an in-depth analysis of the potential consequences of Ukraine’s membership. At the time, the analysis was based on a population of 37 million, although that figure has likely dropped significantly. Ukraine could gain more than 50 seats in the European Parliament and hold 9% of the votes in the European Council, comparable to Poland’s influence.

Accurately determining these figures is nearly impossible during wartime. According to some estimates, Ukraine’s population may now barely exceed 30 million. However, regardless of the exact numbers, Ukraine would - like other member states - gain veto power in the European Council, a fact that would intensify debates about expanding majority voting.

Oversight, but how?

Ukraine’s membership would reshape the current power dynamics, creating new internal tensions and rivalries within the EU. These issues have already surfaced in disputes over Ukrainian grain imports, which caused significant friction with Poland and Hungary.

An important aspect in this regard is that accession talks typically begin with a screening process. At this stage, the candidate country presents its regulatory framework, and experts from the European Commission assess where changes are necessary. Following this, specific recommendations are made, which then open the relevant negotiation chapters.

The screening process is based on the provision of statistical data, for several chapters. For instance, in the agricultural chapter, the candidate country must provide specific details such as its annual milk production, the number of cattle, and poultry. The requirement for statistical data applies across all areas, including the country's land area, population size, age distribution, labor market, energy supply, electricity production, power plants, and the composition of the energy mix. A separate chapter covers transportation policy, with questions such as the length of unpaved roads and the extent (in kilometers) of the country's highway network.

Following the screening process, divided into chapters, actual negotiations can begin. However, under the current circumstances, this is unfeasible. Due to the ongoing war, with territories continuously being lost and retaken, Ukraine’s de facto size and population remain unknown, despite the internationally recognized de jure borders. The country’s actual accession hinges on whether it can enforce EU laws across its territory, which remains uncertain in several regions.

(To be continued)

Cover photo: Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (Photo: Hans Lucas via AFP)