Ukraine's Membership Would Turn the EU Upside Down

Ukraine's accession would completely upset the EU’s voting dynamics, potentially granting Ukraine as much influence over the bloc’s decisions as Poland. However, the situation is far from straightforward; the basic prerequisites for accession include determining the extent of territory controlled by the Ukrainian government and the country’s exact population. Due to the ongoing war, however, even these seemingly simple questions remain unanswered. In this installment of our series examining Ukraine’s potential EU membership, we’ve compiled the arguments for and against the country’s accession and discussed what it would mean from the perspective of the war if a nation currently engaged in miliraty conflict were admitted to the EU.

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (Photo: Hans Lucas via AFP)

One of the European Union's most pressing and contentious issues today is Ukraine's potential accession to the European community. In the first part of our series exploring key elements of this topic, we discussed Ukraine's weak economic indicators and its challenges regarding the rule of law.

The question of Ukraine's EU membership resurfaced after Russia's invasion in 2022. Just days after the attack, President Volodymyr Zelensky's administration formally applied for EU membership under a special procedure.

This set the process in motion, with Ukraine officially becoming a candidate for EU membership as of June 2022.

Arguments in favor

So what are the arguments for and against Ukraine's accession? Baden-Wurttemberg’s political academy outlined ten arguments on both sides. The experts list the following points in support of Ukraine’s entry:

• Geographically, Ukraine belongs to the European space,
• Culturally, it fits within Europe, as a country with Christian roots, like other member states,
• The EU promised Ukraine membership many years ago, creating an obligation for the bloc,
• Some voices advocate for a specially expedited accession process for war-torn countries,
• Article 42(7) of the Lisbon Treaty would offer military protection under the principle of mutual defense,
• EU membership would strengthen Ukraine’s Western alignment and democratic trajectory. With it, the EU would acknowledge Ukraine’s efforts since the Maidan protests,
• Ukraine already has an extensive association agreement with the EU, which - in some ways - has laid the groundwork for membership,
• Ukraine’s membership could benefit the bloc, as it is Europe’s largest country by area and boasting a significant population,
• The EU could appear as a more prominent global political player, after the expansion, and 
• Ukraine’s membership would be an obligation for the EU, as the country defends the values of Western democracy.

Notably, most of these arguments revolve around cultural and political considerations.

Arguments against 

At the same time, the Political Academy argues that Ukraine’s EU membership would lead to numerous drawbacks:

• Historically, Ukraine is more aligned with the Russian sphere than the European one,
• The EU is already stretched thin by pending Western Balkan accessions,
• Ukraine is an unstable democracy with issues pertaining to rule of law, corruption, and minority rights,
• An expedited accession procedure that overlooks these democratic deficits would be unfair to long-waiting candidate countries like North Macedonia and Albania,
• Ukraine’s accession would impose significant financial burdens on the EU, which is already providing aid and assistance to Ukraine,
• Ukraine’s population is divided over EU membership,
• Debating Ukraine’s accession could provoke harsher aggression from Russia,
• The accession would take years to complete,
• Ukraine’s membership would introduce new security risks, as the bloc would expand directly toward Russia and face challenges along its Belarusian border, and
• Based on Cyprus’s example, the EU is hesitant to admit states with unresolved territorial disputes.

It’s worth noting that membership in the EU also has military implications, as referenced in Article 42(7) of the Lisbon Treaty, commonly known as the mutual defense clause. If an EU member state is attacked, others are obligated to provide assistance. And this means that the whole EU could be dragged into the Russia-Ukraine war.

Turning the EU on its head

Beyond the pros and cons, Ukraine’s membership raises questions about its impact on EU institutions and the economy.

In 2023, Politico published an in-depth analysis of the potential consequences of Ukraine’s membership. At the time, the analysis was based on a population of 37 million, although that figure has likely dropped significantly. Ukraine could gain more than 50 seats in the European Parliament and hold 9% of the votes in the European Council, comparable to Poland’s influence.

Accurately determining these figures is nearly impossible during wartime. According to some estimates, Ukraine’s population may now barely exceed 30 million. However, regardless of the exact numbers, Ukraine would - like other member states - gain veto power in the European Council, a fact that would intensify debates about expanding majority voting.

Oversight, but how?

Ukraine’s membership would reshape the current power dynamics, creating new internal tensions and rivalries within the EU. These issues have already surfaced in disputes over Ukrainian grain imports, which caused significant friction with Poland and Hungary.

An important aspect in this regard is that accession talks typically begin with a screening process. At this stage, the candidate country presents its regulatory framework, and experts from the European Commission assess where changes are necessary. Following this, specific recommendations are made, which then open the relevant negotiation chapters.

The screening process is based on the provision of statistical data, for several chapters. For instance, in the agricultural chapter, the candidate country must provide specific details such as its annual milk production, the number of cattle, and poultry. The requirement for statistical data applies across all areas, including the country's land area, population size, age distribution, labor market, energy supply, electricity production, power plants, and the composition of the energy mix. A separate chapter covers transportation policy, with questions such as the length of unpaved roads and the extent (in kilometers) of the country's highway network.

Following the screening process, divided into chapters, actual negotiations can begin. However, under the current circumstances, this is unfeasible. Due to the ongoing war, with territories continuously being lost and retaken, Ukraine’s de facto size and population remain unknown, despite the internationally recognized de jure borders. The country’s actual accession hinges on whether it can enforce EU laws across its territory, which remains uncertain in several regions.

(To be continued)

Cover photo: Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (Photo: Hans Lucas via AFP)