More than a thousand people have died in the ongoing clashes between government forces and supporters of the ousted President Bashar al-Assad, as reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. This is one of the most severe waves of violence in Syria in the past decade. Reports indicate that nearly 750 civilians are among the victims, most of whom were shot at close range. Additionally, 125 government soldiers and 150 Assad loyalists have lost their lives. As a result of the fighting, electricity and drinking water supplies have been cut off in the Latakia region.
Syria's new leadership shows no mercy to supporters of the old regime
Robert C. Castel stated that this surge of violence was predictable:
Anyone who thought that the new Syrian regime would bring an end to the blood-soaked era of previous years in white gloves either has no historical memory or has read too many UN reports. The new power did not promise a clean slate for everyone but carefully determined who should lower their heads and who should not.
According to the expert, the general amnesty announced by the Damascus leadership is far from being a true pardon for all.
In the first round, former conscripts, enlisted soldiers, and reservists were given the opportunity to return to the system with a mere shrug. Those without a name, political ambitions, or blood on their hands that could be documented were not worth the regime’s trouble,
he pointed out.
However, the situation is entirely different for those who were the actual cogs of the previous system.
High-ranking officials, military commanders, intelligence officers, political leaders, and anyone else who knows too much and has too much blood on their hands—well, the regime had something different in store for them,
Castel stated.
The new leadership quickly made it clear that these individuals could not expect amnesty—unless they voluntarily reported to an execution squad.
In the official narrative, the new government considers the finding and punishing of war criminals and human rights violators a national priority.
The regime has even offered monetary rewards for information leading to their capture—after all, one of the key pillars of a stable power is a loyal network of informants,
he added.
Robert C. Castel highlighted that the amnesty is not a gesture but a political tool, as it applies only to soldiers and no one else.
The possibility of clemency depends on how useful someone is to the regime, not on what they have in fact done,
he noted.
Amnesty has never been about moral generosity but rather a means of redistributing power. Syria is no exception. The new power forgives only as much as necessary—and only for those who pose no threat. The rest will face the familiar Syrian reality: if they are lucky, they will simply be forgotten. If they are not, they will be found,
he said, adding that history abounds with similar examples.
A humanitarian crisis on the horizon?
The situation in Syria remains extremely fragile, and the country is at risk of a severe humanitarian crisis.
To answer this question, we must weigh both the trends and the counter-trends,
Castel remarked.
According to the expert, the escalation of sectarian tensions, the existing pattern of migration and refugee flows, the weakness of the central government, rampant lawlessness, economic collapse, and the destabilization caused by shifts in interventionist powers all pose a serious threat. According to Robert C. Castel, this is somewhat offset by the new government's national unification efforts and the international fear of a new refugee influx.
I estimate the likelihood of such a crisis at 65–80 percent,
he added.
Israel unlikely to intervene in Syria
There has been speculation that Israel might intervene in Druze villages near Damascus, starting from the Golan Heights. However, Castel believes that interpretations suggesting Israel might annex Suwayda Governorate, inhabited by Druze, are exaggerated.
The Druze have had ties with Israel for decades, long before the Six-Day War, when Israel annexed four Druze villages along with the Golan Heights,
the expert recalled. In the early decades, this relationship was largely hostile, but with the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, jihadist players emerged in the region against whom only Israel could provide assistance.
What we are most likely to see is Israeli support—delivered remotely, much like what happened in Kurdistan in the 1960s and '70s,
Castel predicted.
Syria remains an unstable country
Given the internal tensions and interventions by the big powers, the question arises whether the country could disintegrate again and whether civil war could reignite.
I believe that in Syria, centrifugal forces have always been much stronger than centripetal ones,
Castel stated.
According to the expert, the only thing that held the country together was a dictatorship that ruled with an iron fist. Now that this power has weakened, the support structures that kept the system intact have collapsed. Robert C. Castel also pointed out that Syria is not a nation-state in the European sense.
One must understand that there is no such thing as a Syrian nation. There are ethnic groups, religious communities, tribes, and clans confined within artificially drawn 'Trianon-like' borders,
Castel said.
Fearing the spread of instability, neighboring countries are actively intervening in Syria to protect their own stability.
This is driven not so much by greed for territorial expansion as by fear that the waves of Syrian chaos will spill over their borders,
he added.
Global powers are also increasingly present in the region.
After the U.S. protecting the Kurds and Russia clinging to its Levantine positions, China is also emerging in Syria in response to the Uyghur extremists fighting there,
Robert C. Castel concluded.
Cover photo: Soldiers loyal to the new Syrian government heading toward the coastal city of Latakia on March 9, 2025 (Photo: AFP)
