Robert C. Castel: New Syrian Power Forgives Only as Much as Necessary

Fighting has reignited in Syria after clashes broke out between the new Damascus leadership and Alawite and Christian insurgents living near the coast. The death toll has now exceeded one thousand. Robert C. Castel, security policy advisor at the Center for Fundamental Rights, spoke to Magyar Nemzet about the future prospects of Syria.

Soldiers loyal to the new Syrian government heading toward the coastal city of Latakia on March 9, 2025 (Photo: AFP)

Robert C. Castel highlighted that the amnesty is not a gesture but a political tool, as it applies only to soldiers and no one else.

The possibility of clemency depends on how useful someone is to the regime, not on what they have in fact done,

he noted.

Amnesty has never been about moral generosity but rather a means of redistributing power. Syria is no exception. The new power forgives only as much as necessary—and only for those who pose no threat. The rest will face the familiar Syrian reality: if they are lucky, they will simply be forgotten. If they are not, they will be found,

he said, adding that history abounds with similar examples.

 

A humanitarian crisis on the horizon?

The situation in Syria remains extremely fragile, and the country is at risk of a severe humanitarian crisis.

To answer this question, we must weigh both the trends and the counter-trends,

 Castel remarked.

According to the expert, the escalation of sectarian tensions, the existing pattern of migration and refugee flows, the weakness of the central government, rampant lawlessness, economic collapse, and the destabilization caused by shifts in interventionist powers all pose a serious threat. According to Robert C. Castel, this is somewhat offset by the new government's national unification efforts and the international fear of a new refugee influx.

I estimate the likelihood of such a crisis at 65–80 percent,

he added.

Israel unlikely to intervene in Syria

There has been speculation that Israel might intervene in Druze villages near Damascus, starting from the Golan Heights. However, Castel believes that interpretations suggesting Israel might annex Suwayda Governorate, inhabited by Druze, are exaggerated.

The Druze have had ties with Israel for decades, long before the Six-Day War, when Israel annexed four Druze villages along with the Golan Heights,

the expert recalled. In the early decades, this relationship was largely hostile, but with the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, jihadist players emerged in the region against whom only Israel could provide assistance.

What we are most likely to see is Israeli support—delivered remotely, much like what happened in Kurdistan in the 1960s and '70s,

Castel predicted.

Syria remains an unstable country

Given the internal tensions and  interventions by the big powers, the question arises whether the country could disintegrate again and whether civil war could reignite.

I believe that in Syria, centrifugal forces have always been much stronger than centripetal ones,

Castel stated.

According to the expert, the only thing that held the country together was a dictatorship that ruled with an iron fist. Now that this power has weakened, the support structures that kept the system intact have collapsed. Robert C. Castel also pointed out that Syria is not a nation-state in the European sense.

One must understand that there is no such thing as a Syrian nation. There are ethnic groups, religious communities, tribes, and clans confined within artificially drawn 'Trianon-like' borders,

Castel said.

Fearing the spread of instability, neighboring countries are actively intervening in Syria to protect their own stability.

This is driven not so much by greed for territorial expansion as by fear that the waves of Syrian chaos will spill over their borders,

 he added.

Global powers are also increasingly present in the region.

After the U.S. protecting the Kurds and Russia clinging to its Levantine positions, China is also emerging in Syria in response to the Uyghur extremists fighting there,

Robert C. Castel concluded.

Cover photo: Soldiers loyal to the new Syrian government heading toward the coastal city of Latakia on March 9, 2025 (Photo: AFP)