The Globsec security policy research network has published this year's study on the Central European countries. The study itself is based on opinion polls conducted in March 2023 on a representative sample of the population of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
No unity
One of the main findings of the survey is that opinions are divided on how to support Ukraine: 61% of respondents in Poland, 60% of respondents in Romania and 56% of respondents in Slovakia think that the economic sanctions against Russia are ineffective, because they do not harm Russia. These findings were highlighted by Anton Spisak, a researcher at the Tony Blair Institute in the UK.
As regards support for Ukrainian refugees, Hungary has by far the most positive public attitude: nine out of ten Hungarians agree with the Hungarian government's support for people fleeing the war in Ukraine.
There is a high level of agreement on supporting refugees in Latvia, Poland and Lithuania, but in Poland, the figure shows a downward trend. The researchers say the reason is that the majority of Ukrainian refugees in Poland, predominantly women and children, are concentrated in the largest Polish cities, and the integration of so many refugees puts a huge burden on local administrations, the housing sector, schools, the labor market and the health care services
Is Russia not solely responsible for the war?
The survey recalls that in polls conducted after the outbreak of the Ukraine war, the proportion of those in the CEE region who believed that Moscow was responsible for the outbreak of the war was low (around 50%), typically in Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia.
By the second year of the war, the number of those thinking that Russia was responsible for starting the war has increased in Hungary, while in Bulgaria and Slovakia the proportion of those who think Russia was provoked by the West has grown compared to last year.
According to Globsec, this shift in attitude may be connected to the fact that the support of Ukraine is at the core of domestic political debates in both countries. Both Slovakia and Bulgaria were, or will be having snap elections in 2023. These two countries have had the largest contingents of respondents throughout the whole region expressing pro-Russian views.
In the case of Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania, the perception of the United States as a driver of Western support is also controversial: an absolute majority of respondents in these countries believe that the United States is dragging their countries into war, because it is profiting from it. In Hungary, some 33 per cent of the respondents agree with that statement.
As for NATO, the authors of the study measured significant support for the military defence organisation, concluding that there is a strong societal demand for the doctrine of collective defence in the region.
Zelensky's support on the decline
Globsec also looked at the support of political leaders in the region. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's popularity is far from unanimous, but besides Hungary, it is also high in Bulgaria, Slovakia and Romania, for example.
According to this section of the study, support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who enjoyed almost universal recognition at the start of the Ukraine war, has dropped by more than five percentage points in the Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia over the past year.
In the latter, less than a third of the population have a positive opinion of the Ukrainian president, even though Slovakia's leadership is one of the greatest proponents of supporting Ukraine.
Attila Demko, security policy expert Head of the Centre for Geopolitics at Mathias Corvinus Collegium, told us that the reason for this is that the Western press has published articles portraying the Ukrainian president in a less favorable light, adding that this began to mold and shape public opinion in these countries.
Blowing up the Friendship oil pipeline would have affected Slovakia and the Czech Republic,
Attila Demko said, regarding Zelensky's leaked plans to blow up the pipeline, which was also on the agenda of Ukrainian decision making, and which clearly influenced the respondents' opinions.
