What similarities are there between Georgia and Hungary, both historically and politically? How big is the support for the ruling party compared to the opposition?
The situation in Georgia in the 2024 elections is most comparable to Hungary's 2022 elections. There is a large ruling bloc, the Georgian Dream Party, which has been in power for multiple terms. In the opposing camp are several smaller parties that ran separately but have all made clear that they will not enter into a coalition with the ruling party and are seeking a change of government.
So there are in essence two major blocs, despite the opposition parties not joining forces to have a common list of candidates.
The other very important factor in this campaign and political scenario, is the war, which is also heavily impacting Georgia. Twenty percent of the country's territory was occupied by the Russians, and Georgians haven't forgotten that in 2008 they fought a dire war. The situation is practically identical to Ukraine's because now roughly twenty percent of Ukraine is under occupation, and the same is still true of Georgia, but there has been no renewal of fighting since 2008.
However, the Western powers are now seeking to draw Georgia into this anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian war policy. And so the campaigns had been spun accordingly.
The ruling Georgian Dream Party campaigned on avoiding the kind of war they had in 2008 and that we are now seeing in Ukraine. They don't want another military conflict with Russia, that would cause terrible destruction. After all, we are talking about a country of 3.5 to 4 million people, as opposed to a giant Russian neighbor, so this attitude is perfectly understandable.
On the other side, the opposition ran a campaign similar to the Hungarian opposition's in 2022. They campaigned on framing it a choice between the East and the West: for the country to head towards Russia or to follow the path of EU integration.
Just as in Hungary the Fidesz-Christian Democrats (KDNP) said that this is not a matter of East or West, but that we stand for Hungarian interests and that it is not in Hungary's interest to be dragged into this war, the Dream Party of Georgia campaigned with a similar message. So there was a similar duel: war vs no war, Europe vs Russia.
It is also important to note that the electoral system in Georgia has been amended several times in recent years. They have moved to a proportional system. As a result, the electoral rules have been changed, and an electronic ballot counting system has been introduced to speed up the processing, as in the last elections in 2020 there was a lot of uncertainty regarding the mandates and the results. The largest election monitoring organization in Georgia had miscounted the seats and accused the ruling party of fraud for a very long time, until it turned out that they had actually just botched the tally themselves. That is why the new electronic system was so critical and was now widely utilized. Upon showing identification and signing a voter registry, voters received a receipt which they also had to deposit in a ballot box, then they received the ballot forms, which after marking their choices were deposited by machine into the ballot box.
The number of ballot forms handed out as well as the number of ballots cast were both being tallied. Electronic counting accelerated the processing and arriving at the result, but there is also a paper trail of the official result, and the latter is the official result.
You mentioned earlier that a color revolution is what is happening in Georgia. What does that look like, what are the elements of a color revolution and its aim?
During the campaign, different things were said about the government and the opposition side. It is clear that the opposition was gearing up for a change of government. But should they not succeed in this by democratic means, the public mood was simultaneously being primed to question the result and cry foul play.
If we think back to 2022, in Hungary, a day or two before the elections, there were opinion polls coming out that said Fidesz-KDNP and the opposition coalition were neck and neck: 47-47%, while the reality was completely different.
A large number of international observers had also been sent to Hungary to guarantee the fairness of the elections. It now appears that the results in Georgia show a favorability difference comparable to what was seen here in the 2022 elections. The ruling party outpolled the aggregate of opposition parties by 16-17 percent. At home, if I remember correctly, Fidesz-KDNP got 54 percent and the left 34 percent. In Georgia this was 53 and 38 percent.
There was a methodical effort to create the appearance of a tight neck-and-neck race, which would facilitate the opposition to prevent the Georgian Dream from forming government again in the event of a close result, by citing alleged or real fraud. In the end, there was a massive difference, but we see that the opposition parties announced on election night that they would not accept the result.
Even the state president, although formally non-partisan, questioned the result. While other international observers came to much the same conclusions that we Hungarian observers did: it would have been extremely difficult to cheat with the votes.
We have seen some provocations in the media, but I have not personally experienced any. The system was very well controlled in the various constituencies. Even if there were frauds, the difference was more than three hundred thousand votes, so this many votes should have been rigged. Three hundred thousand votes is a huge number compared to the turnout, which is about two million. The evidence of fraud presented in the media so far is dwarfed by this.
Initially, Western governments hesitated for a while, and since then a dozen EU governments have announced their refusal to accept the election results. This is a huge destabilizing threat, as there is no evidence of fraud on this scale, yet the international partners question the fairness of the elections.
This provides the political support from abroad, which can open the door to yet another color revolution and a change of government by force.
Would the European Union use Georgia against Russia?
The European Union obviously wants a pro-war government. In Georgia, the memory of the 2008 Russian war lives on, with two territories still under occupation. And it would be quite easy to use this grievance to either launch a second front against Russia from Georgia with Western help, or to divide Russia’s attention and power by just floating the idea, and thus weakening the Russian presence on the Ukrainian front. And this is something the current ruling party refuses to do.
It is important to point out what the opposition campaigned with is not true, that this is a pro-Russia party and is diverting Georgia from the path of integration into the European Union. The current ruling party is also determined to make progress towards the EU integration. In contrast, the European partners and the opposition in Georgia portray the ruling party as an anti-EU party.
What is the significance of the Hungarian prime minister's visit with a delegation?
It is clear that since the beginning of 2022, the Hungarian government and the Fidesz-KDNP have taken a position very close to that of the Georgian ruling party. We see that there is a war, but it is not our war and we do not want our country to be dragged into it. Hungary has a border with Ukraine and Georgia has a long stretch of border with Russia.
The Hungarian prime minister's visit is both symbolic and significant.
It is symbolic, because Hungary understands and recognizes the sovereign political direction that the Georgian government has been taking, and which was confirmed by the election results. On the other hand, it is also significant, since we are not only talking about similar policies or experiences, but also about Hungary holding the presidency of the Council of the European Union during the first six months of this year. In 2011, during Hungary's first EU presidency, Hungary assumed a strong pro-enlargement position, supporting the acceleration of Croatia's accession. The Hungarian government has upheld its pro-enlargement position, and we want to use our presidency to send the message to Brussels that this re-elected majority still wants to move ahead on the road to EU integration. Prime Minister Viktor Orban made a statement in this regard, as did Georgia's prime minister. This is an important message that the Hungarian government and the Hungarian delegation can bring back and pass on to Western politicians.
Can we say that Georgia's leadership is clearly pro-peace, and that they share the same position with Hungary on several issues?
We have very similar political and historical experiences. EU membership is important to Georgia economically, politically and emotionally, and so it is to us. However, the last major accession to the European Union took place in 2004, twenty years ago. After that, Romania and Bulgaria gained membership. Since the accession of Croatia, now more than ten years ago, the enlargement process has ground to a halt.
The countries that have been promised accession to the EU are increasingly doubtful. Western politics cannot expect them to align, especially in such a geopolitical situation. Georgia will follow closely how the surrounding big powers - Turkiye, Iran and Russia - position themselves. They will not engage in conflicts that would incur the wrath of the major powers, threaten their own security and interests, and then find themselves left without help.
What is the position of the Hungarian opposition regarding the emerging geopolitical situation? Will they adopt the rhetoric of the European Union?
The Tisza Party is a member of the European People's Party. And the leadership of the People's Party questions the fairness of Georgia's election. During the EP plenary debate in Strasbourg, when it came to the Hungarian presidency, we heard from Ursula von der Leyen and Manfred Weber that they would like to see Peter Magyar at the helm of the Hungarian government after the elections.
The formula that is being used in Georgia could be applied in Hungary in 2026. Regardless of the election results, they will help anybody whom they see as capable of replacing the current Fidesz-KDNP government.
If it doesn't matter what the outcome of the Georgian election is, if it doesn't matter that there isn't enough evidence to question the election results, then in fact the results of any election in any country can be called into question. They will lend help to the leader or party they want to see in power. We have to prepare for this. We already saw serious foreign intervention in 2022.
The Left received ten million dollars in support from abroad. A large international mission of observers was sent to monitor the election. They continue to support left-wing media outlets. The current situation in Georgia teaches us the lesson that we must prepare for an even bigger and stronger foreign intervention.
Cover photo: Hungarian Fidesz MEP Andras Laszlo (Source: Andras Laszlo)
