Trump Could Exert Pressure On Russia-Ukraine War

While there are several possible scenarios for resolving the Russia-Ukraine war, it is certain that Donald Trump, the newly elected U.S. president, has tools at his disposal to pressure the warring sides, according to Tamas Magyarics, professor emeritus at ELTE University. In the Middle East, Israel is likely to be granted more leeway, and the issue of border protection will be overseen by a "hawkish trio" in the incoming Trump administration.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (Photo: AFP)

The list of names in President-elect Donald Trump's incoming cabinet is nearing completion. But who are the future cabinet members, and what do Trump’s choices indicate about his likely measures and policies? In an interview Tamás Magyarics, professor emeritus at ELTE University, shared his insights regarding these questions. The latest announcement involves Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz, nominated by the president-elect for the role of attorney general. According to Mr. Magyarics, Gaetz - known as a staunch conservative even within the Republican Party - is likely to adopt a strict stance on restoring public safety and combating crime. A key question will be how state law enforcement agencies operate and whether the practice of aiding illegal migrants in so-called sanctuary cities will persist.

Matt Gaetz’s firm approach may serve the Trump administration well (Photo: AFP)

The Justice Department may take a tougher stance on left-wing incidents and activities that were handled rather leniently under the Biden administration.

Another noteworthy appointment is Pete Hegseth as secretary of defense. The former Fox News host has no prior government experience, but his role will likely be to shake things up. That said, the Pentagon is one of the largest bureaucracies that may pose significant challenges for an outsider, Mr. Magyarics opined.

His task will be to restore the U.S. armed forces into a clearly professional military,

– the professor explained.

The U.S. military has recently faced criticism for its focus on diversity programs, but a shift back to merit-based recruitment and promotions is expected.

Trump places great emphasis on foreign policy 

The State Department is expected to undergo similar changes, with the president-elect selecting Marco Rubio as secretary of state. While Mr. Rubio had previously supported aid to Ukraine, he voted against a $95-billion aid package for the war-torn country this past April, the professor highlighted.

In short: Mr. Rubio is part of the growing number of Republicans - and Americans - who want the U.S. to take a smaller role in the Ukraine conflict and shift its financial burdens onto Europeans,

– Mr. Magyarics stated, adding that Mr. Rubio will likely favor finding a resolution to the conflict because he believes the U.S.'s primary strategic interest is not in Ukraine, but in the Indo-Pacific region, where U.S. resources should be focused.

Marco Rubio represents a pro-peace stance (Photo: AFP)

Mike Waltz, the incoming national security advisor, is also among the hardliners who oppose the United States taking on certain burdens on behalf of other countries. For example, he believes in burden-sharing within NATO.

It is likely that they will try to raise the 2-percent GDP defense contribution - established in 2014 - to 3 percent, the professor underlined. Americans rightfully feel that Europeans are getting a "free lunch," because while Europe's total GDP lags behind that of the U.S., it does not do so by the same margin as their contribution. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates also warned Europeans that failing to do more will create a such a capabilities gap between the U.S. and European militaries that will make it impossible for them to effectively cooperate within NATO, Mr. Magyarics emphasized. 

Intelligence: a key area in the future

John Ratcliffe, expected to take over the CIA from January, brings previous experience as director of national intelligence, Mr. Magyarics stated, adding that Trump has long been dissatisfied with both the CIA and FBI, to put it mindly, and he accused both of undermining his presidency. Ratcliffe’s nomination signals a desire to bring these agencies under tighter control.

When it comes to making foreign policy predictions for the future based on the Trump administration's cabinet picks, Mr. Magyarics pointed to China as the most straightforward aspect, expressing his belief that Trump will likely introduce a stronger trade tariffs policy against the Asian superpower.

From a security policy perspective, strengthening the U.S.'s alliances in the Pacific and East Asia with countries like South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan will continue, especially given the "fairly intimate relationship" that's developed between North Korea and Russia.

The Trump administration will likely assume a more decisive pro-Israel stance in the Middle East. They may prove to be more lenient towards Hamas and Hezbollah, but could also take more aggressive steps against Iran, the expert pointed out.

In terms of Ukraine, there are a number of scenarios. According to J.D. Vance, the future vice president, everyone will need to make a sacrifice. He would create a demilitarized zone with strong security guarantees for Ukraine, but we must emphasize that Ukraine had already received such guarantees in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Mr. Magyarics recalled.

It is possible that Trump will excert pressure on Ukraine to be more flexible. The president-elect has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine in the near future, but the country may receive more significant security guarantees, the professor said.

In search of peace 

Going forward, it will be difficult to reach an agreement, whether relating to a ceasefire or peace, that satisfies both sides. However, Trump may have tools at his disposal regarding Russia, for instance, by lifting the U.S. energy export ban imposed by President Biden, which would lower prices and thus reduce Russian revenues, Mr. Magyarics explained.

According to consistent reports there is some form of dialogue between the two countries. Obviously, not at the highest level, but somewhere, some folks are negotiating how to find a way out of the situation, the expert added.

In terms of border defense, Kristi Noem, South Dakota's current governor nominated by Trump to lead the Homeland Security Department, "border czar"Tom Homan and Stephen Miller, the future deputy chief of staff for policy, make up a real "hawk trio" for the president-elect.Tamas Magyarics said he was certain that the construction of the wall along the Mexican border will continue, and deportations will begin. The new administration will likely tighten the rules, renegotiate the "Remain in Mexico" program with Mexico, and strengthen border security forces.

These steps will likely happen quickly, as they were among Trump's main campaign promises

– he concluded. It is worth remembering that the entire border patrol union supported Trump in Arizona.

Cover photo: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (Photo: AFP)