PM Orban: Ukraine Has Lost, Russia Has Won the War + Video

Europe’s future will be decided over its head, said Prime Minister Viktor Orban in conversation with security policy expert Gyorgy Nogradi on the Patriota channel.

The secret to the Hungarian prime minister's success is that he always stands with the people, says the PM’s political director (Photo: MTI/Prime Minister’s Press Office/Vivien Cher Benko)

"One shouldn’t overestimate their own importance, because that leads to big trouble," Viktor Orban said in the interview posted on the Patriota YouTube channel when asked about Donald Trump quoting his views on the Russia–Ukraine war.

PM Orban pointed out that the number of years spent in politics gives prestige. He said that since he was the longest-serving leader In Europe, "it seems pretty obvious that if someone is curious about something, one of the first people they’d ask would be the Hungarian prime minister," adding that this benefits the country’s stability.

We are talking about a country that has had the same political leadership for a long time, which is a fantastic advantage in diplomacy,

he said.

Reason for the Veto

Viktor Orban explained why he vetoed the European Council’s statement in connection with the Trump–Putin meeting. He said there were two reasons: one was a completely clear and direct sentence referring to Ukraine’s EU membership.

The Hungarian people have already decided on that. Negatively. Ukraine will not be a member of the European Union. I will not sign declarations that contain a statement contrary to that,

he stated.

He also stressed that in politics, prestige matters. "You must never appear ridiculous and pathetic, because then you will end up being weak and pathetic," he said, adding that when two parties sit down to negotiate — in this case the Russians and the Americans — "and you are not invited, you do not grab the phone, you do not run around, you do not shout from the sidelines, you do not try to emphasize your own importance in front of those two people or back home," because that behavior is pathetic.

Desire to Be Great Has Faded

He pointed out that Europe has a population of more than 400 million and a huge economy. "You cannot behave this way, in my view. I personally never do. Europe must be respectable and have a chance at success, not weak and pathetic," he said. In his view, Europe currently has no chance of success because European leaders have lost the feeling of greatness and the desire for greatness.

Europe doesn’t want to be great, it just wants to be well off, but if you want to be well off, you also have to be great and strong. This connection is not yet obvious in Brussels,

he emphasized.

Why Alaska?

The host asked Gyorgy Nogradi why the two presidents would meet in Alaska. The security policy expert believes it is because Alaska has symbolic significance.

Russia sold the territory to the United States in 1867.

At the time, the American delegation was heavily criticized for buying a “refrigerator” for 7.2 million dollars in gold. The purchase eventually proved worthwhile, Nogradi said.

Russia has Won This War

However, he also noted that amid current global events, Ukraine’s situation will likely be pushed into the background during talks between the two world powers. Viktor Orban further stated that

the Ukrainians have lost, Russia has won this war. 

"The only question is when and under what circumstances the Westerners, who are backing the Ukrainians, will admit that this has happened, and what follows from it," he pointed out.

Ukraine is not surrendering only because Europeans are supplying it with weapons and money, Viktor Orban opined and recalled that early in the war Hungary proposed that Europe start negotiating with Russia independently of the United States. Now, however, the Russians are negotiating with the Americans about Europe’s future — without us. In Orban’s view, this proves his earlier statement that "if you are not at the negotiating table, you are on the menu."

Putin's Government Falling an Illusion

Gyorgy Nogradi also noted that European military leaders are wrong to scare people with claims that Russia will invade Europe within a few years. "In Europe, NATO’s conventional forces are four times stronger than Russia’s. Who is the fool that attacks against a four-to-one superiority?" he pointed out.

Viktor Orban added that

military leaders say what they say because they are acting on political orders.

These are political positions, not professional ones, Pm Orban said. In his view, European leaders have a much broader idea in mind than just the Russia–Ukraine war: they think that if Ukraine wins, Putin’s government will fall in Russia, which he considers an illusion.

In response to the host’s question, both the Hungarian prime minister and Gyorgy Nogradi stated that Europe’s future will be decided over its head. Viktor Orban also highlighted that

the Russia–Ukraine war is only a major issue in Europe while in the rest of the world, it is not.

"And the world is not very tolerant of the fact that instead of helping with conflicts in other parts of the world,  the Americans and the West have dug themselves into the Russia–Ukraine war, pushing all other global problems into the background," he emphasized.

Trump Seeks to Settle Issues

President Trump has broken out of this pattern and is trying to settle open issues one by one, according to Viktor Orban. The Russia–Ukraine war is important, he said, but there is an even bigger question of

whether in the wake of conflicts there would be a unified global economy, and a system of cooperation would emerge based on a new equilibrium, or the global economy would split in two and begin to form blocs. This will have a major impact, for example, on Hungary’s economic development as well.

"So while we are talking about the war, behind the entire stage of war lies the question of the future of the global economy, which needs to be redesigned right now," he summarized.

He said that this includes issues such as the world’s energy supply, and within that, the question of Europe’s sanctions against Russia. "Hungary’s fate depends on questions such as how much energy we can buy on the world market and at what price. This could also be decided now. And then there are issues like investments. Can Russians invest in America? Can Americans invest in Russia? In which sectors? How, and how much? So beyond the war, the big questions of restructuring the global economy are also on the table," he emphasized.

Issues to Solve After the War

Gyorgy Nogradi pointed out that even if peace comes, there will still be many unresolved issues after the war. "What will happen to Ukraine’s western borders? What will Ukrainian–Polish relations be like in a situation where there is a new Polish president who takes a hard line on Ukraine’s role in the Second World War? What will relations with Romania be like, since Romania has always eyed Moldova with strategic goals?” he listed, noting that Ukraine’s situation is extremely difficult and that Zelensky’s chances are worsening day by day. He said there are two people in Ukrainian domestic politics who are much more popular than him: the head of military intelligence and the former commander-in-chief of the army, who is now ambassador to London.

“How can he prevent them from running in the elections?” Nogradi asked. “Only if the war continues,” he said.

Global Economy Depends on Balance of Power

Regarding the functioning of the global economy, Viktor Orban stressed: its foundation lies in the balance of power. "If there is a balance of power that underpins the functioning of the global economy, and it is not disrupted, then the global economy ticks along. Well or badly, but without dramatic moments.  If one of the players changed a key component of it, the other would react, and and everything will be upset. This is what happened in the Russia-Ukraine war," he explained.

He pointed out that Ukraine is a buffer state, just as Hungary was between 1990 and 1999.

After we joined NATO, the Ukrainians took on the role of a buffer zone state. And the European balance of power rested on this (… ) The West had influence, the Russians had influence,

he said. In his view, after the Ukrainians wanted to become part of the Western integration, the balance was upset, and the Russians reacted.

He emphasized that Ukraine is now losing, and the very existence of a Ukrainian state is now at risk.  "The West is trying to save what can be saved, and they say that at least the remainder of Ukraine should be part of  the Western structure. The Russians will either accept this or not, the Americans will give it their blessing or not, but what's certain is that Ukraine will not be able to decide its own future. Because it disrupted the balance of power and brought about this situation, putting its own statehood at risk,” he explained.

Empire-Building Scenario

Gyorgy Nogradi pointed out that Europe made the mistake of handling this issue on an ideological basis. “The world laughed at us, because elsewhere politics is based on interests,” he said. The Hungarian prime minister confirmed the expert’s statement and stressed that

Brussels’ goal is to move as close as possible to a United States of Europe.

In his view, Brussels is following an empire-building scenario and this war neatly firs into it.

Ukraine Cannot Join the EU

Addressing Ukraine’s possible EU membership after the war, and the Hungarian prime minister made it clear: Hungary’s interest is that under no circumstances should Hungary be in any form of integration with Ukraine.  “Not in NATO, not in the European Union, not in anything. If we are in the same bloc with Ukraine, the consequences will be unpredictable or very much predictable. Firstly, all our money will go there. If Ukraine is admitted to the EU, that is a direct road to Hungary's impoverishment. Our agriculture will collapse, we will lose jobs, many things will happen,” he explained, adding that the EU should instead conclude a strategic alliance with Ukraine.

Gyorgy Nogradi added that France’s interest in preventing Ukraine’s accession is just as strong as Hungary’s.

If Ukraine joins the EU, French agriculture will no longer receive the huge sums of money it has been getting from Brussels. If they do this in France, the government will fall. So it is in France's fundamental national interest that Ukraine does not become an EU member,

expert emphasized.

Europe Cannot Defend Itself

During the conversation, they also discussed how, despite its wealth, Europe cannot defend itself. Regarding the upcoming peace talks, the question arose: will the European Union have any say in the meeting between Trump and Putin?

In Viktor Orban's view, Europe needs to redefine its place in the world.

He pointed out that this is not happening, and that it has consequences for Hungary as well. "This is why, since the financial crisis — which coincided with Fidesz forming a government in 2010 — there has been no European strategy, and Europe’s weakening and missteps have been clearly visible. This is why we must create our own national strategy in the absence of a European one," he explained.

In his view, if Hungary aligned itself with the EU, it would be neck-deep in a war with Russia, the transition to green energy would have ruined the Hungarian economy, relations with the Americans would be bad, there would be no Chinese investments, and the entire Hungarian economy would be on its knees.

It would be in our interest to have a European strategy in which we could identify the potential of asserting Hungarian interests and go along with them. But today, there is no such strategy,

he said.

No Concern for the Rights of Hungarians in Transcarpathia

Turning to the situation of ethnic Hungarians living in Transcarpathia, Viktor Orban stressed that the government is using every tool available to protect their rights. However, in a country at war, the possibilities for taking international legal action are limited. "The Ukrainians say they are fighting for their lives and even though they understand our problems, they are secondary," he said. 

So in such times it is difficult to win legal rights for minority communities. This could only change if peace returned and the major powers decided about the role of Ukraine,

he said.

Gyorgy Nogradi pointed out that the share of Hungarians in Transcarpathia has dropped to around half of what it was and even if nobody talks about this, there is a growing number of Hungarians who are banned from entering Ukraine. He noted that everything Europe has ever proclaimed as rightful and just does not work in Ukraine, and their only reply is: “We are at war.”

Ukrainian Agents Have Infiltrated Hungarian Politics

It was also discussed that, despite carrying out the largest humanitarian aid operation in its history for Ukraine, Hungary still faces hostility from Kyiv. Viktor Orban recalled that the Ukrainians have launched serious intelligence operations against Hungary. He explained that many of these are covert, some have become public, and that Ukraine's agents have seriously infiltrated Hungarian politics, public thinking, and institutions.

This is a serious problem. I deal with it every day, and we must address it. But we are talking about a country at war, and we must not lose our cool,

he stressed. The prime minister pointed out that, despite attempts to influence Hungary’s position, the government does not allow this. In his view, this is not unusual in the world of politics.

Hungary Could Bring About Ukraine's Collapse in a Day

However, Ukraine’s collapse is not in our interest, even though we could bring it about in a single day. But this is not in our interest,

Viktor Orban noted.

He pointed out that a significant part of Ukraine’s electricity and gas supply comes from Hungary. "If some accident were to happen, and some poles fell over or some power lines broke, Ukraine would come to a stop.  So, while Ukraine talks to us disrespectfully in a way that normal people don’t, they’re also at our mercy," he explained.

Taking Advantage of Hungarian Goodwill

The Ukrainians know full well that it’s not in Hungary's interest to trigger Ukraine’s collapse, because a Ukraine that is collapsing next to Hungary would pose a threat and a risk to public safety and the life of the Hungarian minority which Hungary doesn’t want to take, he said.

"The reason why the Ukrainians are so disrespectful to us, even though in some ways we’ve got them in our hands, is because they know that although Hungary doesn't support Ukraine's EU accession, Ukraine’s destabilization is not in Hungary’s interest. Our interest lies in a stable and functioning Ukraine, and the Ukrainians are abusing this situation," he said, adding that 

on top of all this, their goal is to influence next year’s Hungarian parliamentary elections.

He recalled that the Ukrainian government does not even hide this — they have announced it. "It is widely known that bringing the Hungarian opposition to power is among the top priorities of Ukrainian foreign policy, perhaps even in first place. That’s life,” PM Orban concluded.