Exclusive – Israeli Expert: The Fate of the World Depends on Iran

Sima Shine, senior research fellow at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies and former director of the “Iran and the Shiite Axis” research program, told our newspaper that the next 24 hours will determine the direction of events. If Iran decides to retaliate against the United States, we could see a massive escalation with unforeseeable consequences.

Donald Trump and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Photo: AFP)

“I assume the three sites hit by the Americans have been completely destroyed. There is no question that the United States has far greater capabilities than Israel. Based on that, I would say the three most important nuclear sites have likely been wiped out. Even if not entirely, they have become essentially unusable,” Sima Shine, senior research fellow at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, told the daily Magyar Nemzet in an interview.

The United States attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities (Photo: AFP)

As far as we know — and this was also disclosed by the Iranians — they removed the enriched material and dispersed it to various locations. They prepared for an attack. So, we don’t know where most of the material is. Likely, some of it was destroyed, but we have no information about the rest. And here it’s not only the 60-percent enriched uranium that matters, but also the 20-percent, which can very easily be enriched to 60 percent,

– she added. The expert also pointed out that there had been no comprehensive inspections over the past four years regarding the construction of centrifuges, so it is assumed that Iran has hidden advanced centrifuges.

Technically, they could have relocated both the centrifuges and the material, and they could now be enriching to 90 percent elsewhere, producing a bomb or something similar. However, I don’t believe that this is Iran’s primary goal.

Everything Could Be Decided in the Next 24 Hours

According to Ms. Shine, the most critical question now is how Iran will respond to the current situation and whether it will retaliate against the United States.

Escalation now depends on Iran. If Iran acts against the United States rather than Israel, then we can expect escalation — a serious escalation — without question. Trump told them this too and repeatedly emphasized that there is still room for agreement. However, it is difficult to imagine that the Iranians would sit down to negotiate with the United States right now,

– the expert said.

She emphasized:

As long as the conflict remains between Israel and Iran, it can be contained. But if Iran decides to attack the United States, it would mean a massive escalation. And I think that’s Iran’s dilemma today.

Iran Fears Regime Change

According to the senior research fellow at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, Iran feels that this is no longer just about its nuclear program.

They believe that the United States and Israel — especially Israel — want to topple the regime. Therefore, they view everything from a different perspective. So now they must ask themselves: what is it that ensures the regime’s stability in the future? Attacking the United States, or ending the war?

Alongside strategic thinking, the emotional approach must also be considered.

In this calculation, pride and the feeling of humiliation can sometimes be far more powerful motivators than strategic decisions. So I would say that if they are rational, they will not attack the Americans. If they are not, they will. The next 24 hours will reveal the answer.

According to Ms. Shine, neither Israel nor the United States wants to continue fighting.

I don’t think the United States wants to continue the strikes, and I believe Israel would also like to wrap this up soon. The question is where Iran stands — and what it wants,

– she said.

Iran’s Current Position Is Hard to Pin Down

I think they're also struggling to make decisions right now. They are scattered. Most are trying to stay in places where Israel doesn’t know about them, and even their leader doesn’t know where they are. In fact, we don’t even know where the Supreme Leader is. So I think they're facing technical difficulties in communication as well.

If they are rational, they will not involve the United States. 

Trump is in a very combative mood right now. He wants to be sure that his decision was the right one. And we know there are those in the U.S. who oppose it. That’s why I think the next 24 hours are crucial — they will show which direction the Iranians are heading in.

The question is how they assess the situation and what they believe could improve their standing — both with their own people and the region at large.

A major question is whether they are capable of closing this chapter and saying: ‘Okay, we are willing to negotiate within a week or end the attacks.’ If they say that, then I assume Trump will pressure Israel to stop the war.

 

Israel Will Not Tolerate Further Attacks

Iran has been saying for years that Israel should be wiped off the map. At the same time, there is a very harsh lesson we learned on October 7 — that we must listen to our enemies and take them seriously. Hamas said it would attack Israel. And we thought Hamas wasn’t strong, it’s not even a state. They have no war plans. We underestimated their strength a little,

– the expert said, adding that

after the October events, the government made a firm decision — with the support of the Israeli people — that if we see a threat, we must strike. We cannot afford to convince ourselves that those who say such things don’t mean them. They do. They don’t just talk — they act!

According to the expert, Israel feels safer if Iran has no nuclear capability at all, but the Jewish people must prepare for attacks.

If we look at conventional military balance, there’s no question that it favors Israel. And of course, Iran will try to carry out terrorist acts wherever possible — at Jewish sites, Israeli embassies, anything. That’s not new — they’ve tried this in the past. So the only question is whether we can detect them. I hope we can,

– Sima Shine said, adding that it’s important for people understand Israel that had no choice. The stockpiling of ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads, and Iran’s extremely advanced nuclear threshold status, posed a direct threat to Israel.

Cover photo: Donald Trump and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Photo: AFP)