Fidesz Maintains a Stable Lead, Glass Ceiling Appears Above the Tisza Party

The 21st Century Institute has published a new public opinion survey revealing how current party support stands.

According to the survey conducted by the 21st Century Institute between November 29 and December 1, Fidesz has further strengthened its position (a one-percentage-point increase compared with early October ), while the Tisza Party has weakened (minus one point). The institute states that based on the data, Peter Magyar’s party has reached its growth ceiling, having already absorbed all former opposition protest votes. On the basis of politically active respondents, the standings are currently:

Fidesz 45 percent, Tisza 40 percent.

 

Our Homeland Movement (MHM) would enter with certainty (improving by one point compared with early October, and now standing at eight percent), while the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) would fall out (four percent). The Democratic Coalition (DK) also remains below the parliamentary threshold, at three percent.

While numbers at the beginning of October indicated the formation of a four-party parliament, the new survey shows a shift: the latest results project that three parties would enter parliament.

The 21st Century Institute notes that a little more than four months remain until the elections.

"We have come through a dynamic autumn. October and November were defined by Fidesz stepping up its pace, moving forward, and taking back the initiative. This is confirmed by the government programs announced (Home Start program, personal income tax exemption for mothers with three children, fourteenth-month pension, and package of measures supporting businesses), as well as by intensive diplomatic activity (Trump–Orban meeting and visit to Moscow), where the stakes were once again the major issues that concern people (protecting reduced utility costs and securing peace in Ukraine)," the institute said in its statement.

According to the institute In contrast, the Tisza Party’s autumn was marked by struggle and stagnation (a data-leak scandal, leaked economic plans), the institute said, noting that the research shows that the Tisza's candidate nomination process did not become a point of lift-off. Instead, the Tisza Party has been preoccupied with itself—organizational problems, internal issues—and has yet to present a substantive offer to the electorate.