As always, PM Orban's recent speech at Romania's Baile Tusnad (Tusnadfurdo) painted a broad picture of the world, Europe and Hungary. In a good sense, this something that we have come to expect over the years, but we should not take for granted that we have a prime minister capable of delivering an hour-long speech and analysis two or even three times a year that is not not just political in nature, but also contains political social science elements.
This is a great value that every Hungarian citizen can be proud of - of course, I know that one half of the country refuses to listen to him, or rather are irritated by every sentence Viktor Orban says. But let's not concern ourselves with them: for now, let's be happy that the country has a prime minister for the thirteenth year now, whose speeches are followed, analyzed and evaluated in just about every part of the world, and of course the liberal mainstream takes point with every part of it wherever it can. How many countries can say the same about themselves? With the exception of the superpowers, one can hardly find such a country.
Mr Orban's speech again painted a comprehensive picture of the times we are living in. What I found to be of particular importance in his one-hour talk was, I would say, a kind of realist-essentialist view in his assessment of the world, of Europe and of our country.
It was an accurate assumption that the "non-West" – led by China and including the BRICS and those who are joining them – is creating its own parallel international institutions, which are essentially a kind of alternative to the traditional Western institutions. This is a very exciting issue because it really raises the not so pretty possibility that the world as it is is splitting at almost every level, so it will no longer be a cleavage but actually a fission. As an example, the prime minister cited the Asian Bank, which already rivals the Western international banks in terms of resources.
After all, he concluded, we are on the brink of the greatest danger, because we are heading for a major collision. I think it was extremely commendable of PM Orban that he did not for even a moment try to reassure his audience with a kind of typical political optimism or rather, vain wishful thinking, but proved to be a realist who clearly recognizes the essence, and point-blank stated that we are at the most dangerous moment, because the leading power sees – rightly – that it could slide from first to second place.
And Viktor Orban is absolutely right that the US has carved out a special place for itself in the world, and that is the first place position, the „gold medal”-ist, and that it is the master of the world, militarily, economically and morally. This conviction permeates the American ethos, one could say that the attachment to first place, to the dominant position, is a mentality or character trait of the United States that it cannot escape. But this also happens to be the cause of the danger, as we can see in many contexts.
Also of key importance was his reference to the fact that when conflicts of great powers have occurred in world history and the question of primacy was at stake, twelve of the sixteen cases examined ended in war, which is how the basic question of power was ultimately decided. In other words, Orban's realist view of the essential did not allow him to be dishonest to the public, and he didn't try to cover up that we are facing the possibility of a third world war.
But he also proposed a way out, again a realistic one, a way to avoid a world war, and that is a new balance between the two - or three, if we include Russia - parties, namely by acknowledging each other's existence, by accepting, to quote his words, that „there are two suns in the sky”. On this basis, they will not be marching towards war, but will try to play a win-win game, in which they seek to find forms of mutually beneficial cooperation. One thing we can be sure of – and I am adding this – is that China would certainly welcome with open arms the hand of friendship extended to it by the US. Let us not forget that the autumn of 2024 could bring major changes, for instance with the Republican candidate – who will probably be Trump – winning the US presidential elections, and that this could radically change US world politics, because Trump is not really thinking in terms of war, but in terms of maintaining his country's economic supremacy, and that is a radically different approach.
The same realistic attitude was evident in Orban's assessment of the state of the EU. He said that the EU is was a state of anxiety and felt hemmed in. But the reason for that is its own weakness, powerlessness and inability to assert its own sovereignty. It seems to be increasingly under the control of the United States and has taken a shocking position on the war.
I would add that one of the most recent, spectacularly sad signs of this is the Commission's intention to vote in favor of a four-year, $20 billion subsidy for Ukraine, which envisages permanent participation in the war. It is far from being a wise decision; rather, it is a self-destructive one. PM Orban made it clear that by cutting Russia off from European economic relations, the EU would lose its competitiveness in the global economy. Meanwhile, companies think differently: only 8.5 percent of the 1400 largest companies have pulled out of Russia. That is why the Ukrainian attack on OTP Bank is a joke.
The struggle between federalists and sovereigntists within the EU and the series of attacks on our country from Brussels are issues that cannot be ignored. PM Orban took a realistic stance when he made it clear that the sovereignist V4 countries were left alone after Brexit, and added it was one of the underlying caouses of the attacks on Hungary and Poland, disguised as a rule of law dispute. The premier has also clearly stated that Czechs have essentially defected to the liberal federalist side and that Slovakia is wavering. I would add to this that if the Social Democrat Fico returns to power in the next election, we could almost certainly be allies again in the fundamental disputes in the EU. PM Orban is optimistic, because a right-wing government has come to power in Italy. Perhaps the same will be the case in Spain after Sunday's elections, and in Austria there is growing cooperation with the Freedom Party, which is doing very well in the opinion polls and has a chance of taking part in another coalition government.
PM Orban is also confident that the 2024 European Parliament elections will allow sovereignist forces to make progress and form an alliance to provide a serious counterweight to the federalist mainstream. But he is realistic that next year's European elections are unlikely to bring a seismic shift in the balance of power.
His argument that we Hungarians insist on our own common culture, our world view, our way of life, including the gender issue, war, migration and the defense of our sovereignty, was of paramount importance. That is why we are in a struggle with the EU elite, which is visibly and obviously blackmailing us, both politically and financially, and trying to force us to fall in line, like the Czechs or the Baltic states (he gave the example of Lithuania, which has just recently withdrawn its 2012 Family Protection Act, which the Hungarian government has been using to draft its family protection measures).
He expressed what I think is the most important realistic point in the current situation: we will not compromise with the EU on the issues that are crucial for us. We will not back down and we will not give in to blackmail. We can give in on tactical, strategic issues, he said, but not on issues of historical perspective. I would add that on thing is certain: the gender issue, our peace-loving stance on war, the defense of our borders against the flood of migrants, the defense of our sovereignty and our wish for a Europe of strong nations are all issues of historical importance to us. This means that we can make concessions on the less important issues, but we must take a historic approach to the essential issues.
We have to fight, that is the only way. About that, the prime minister is absolutely right.
