Ukraine could become EU member only at Hungary's expense

Accession talks between Ukraine and the European Union are due to start in mid-December. Kiev submitted its application for membership in February last year, but some say accession will not happen for years, as Brussels has a long list of conditions that will take time to fulfill. In an interview with Magyar Nemzet, constitutional lawyer Zoltan Lomnici Jr. spoke about the consequences of Ukraine becoming a full member of the European Union.

Brüsszel, 2023. február 9. Ursula von der Leyen, az Európai Bizottság elnöke, Volodimir Zelenszkij ukrán elnök és Charles Michel, az Európai Tanács elnöke (b-j) kezet fog, miután sajtótájékoztatót tartottak az Európai Tanács kétnapos brüsszeli tanácskozásának elsõ napi ülésén 2023. február 9-én. MTI/EPA/Olivier Hoslet Fotó: Olivier Hoslet

“The distribution of EU funds would certainly have to be completely restructured, and it would come shortly after the financial chaos caused by Brexit. It could also harm several member states, mainly in Central Europe, which would sooner or later resist it,” constitutional lawyer Zoltan Lomnici Jr. told Magyar Nemzet. Ukraine submitted its application for membership in February last year, and accession talks with Brussels are due to start as early as this year. However, the expert stressed that the current member states will not necessarily have a positive approach to the accession of the post-Soviet country.

Ukraine is far behind EU member states in terms of general economic development, so it would need a staggering amount of cohesion funds,

he said, adding that EU funds would be diverted mainly from the Central and Eastern European region.

Katarina Barley, vice-president of the European Parliament (EP), has also pointed out that Ukraine's agricultural sector is so large that under current EU rules only Kiev and one other member state could receive EU agricultural subsidies. Zoltan Lomnici Jr. echoed the concerns, pointing out that according to some calculations, some 65 percent of the EU's seven-year budget is devoted to agriculture and development funds for poorer regions. The vast majority of that would go to Ukraine, at the expense of development in the V4 countries, along with Bulgaria and Romania.

I met with @eucopresident @CharlesMichel to discuss Ukraine’s progress on the path to opening EU accession talks.

We also focused on the frontline developments and further EU military support.

We paid special attention to the Peace Formula and the Global Peace Summit. pic.twitter.com/QGt6TZwQ9W

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 19, 2023

What will happen to the Hungarians in Transcarpathia if Ukraine joins the EU?

Ukraine's accession to the EU will also have an impact on the Hungarian minority, most of whom live in Transcarpathia and whose numbers are estimated to fall below 100,000 by the end of the war. Zoltan Lomnici Jr. said the anti-Hungarian measures in the region were a clear violation of minority and basic human rights.

If Brussels adheres even minimally to the Treaties, and if the situation of national minorities is important to them, Ukraine will be required to make drastic changes in both legislation and practice regarding the situation of minorities before the accession. Given the considerable number of repressive measures affecting the Hungarian minority, it would take a long time to eliminate them, which would certainly delay the accession.

the expert said.

Zoltan Lomnici Jr. also recalled some recent anti-Hungarian measures. The Ukrainian police, for example, have removed Hungarian flags from several public institutions in Transcarpathia, citing a decree. Also, Ukraine's 2017 education law makes Ukrainian the compulsory language of instruction in state-owned primary schools in the fifth grade and above. The list could go on, with an estimated 500 atrocities committed against Transcarpathia Hungarians before the war. These include attacks on the headquarters of the Hungarian Cultural Association of Transcarpathia (KMKSZ), the prevention of the celebration of Hungarian national holidays, the desecration of national symbols (such as the removal of flags from public offices), KMKSZ President Laszlo Brenzovics's de facto exile from Transcarpathia, and the banning from Ukraine of Hungarian politicians such as Hungarian State Secretary for National Policy Janos Arpad Potapi.

The war has only worsened the situation of Hungarians in Transcarpathia, the expert stressed: the Turul statue in Mukachevo has been toppled, and the situation at the Ferenc Rakoczi II Secondary School in the city is also worrying. There, the Hungarian national anthem could not be played at the opening ceremony of the school year, and teachers were also dismissed.

When can Ukraine join the European Union?

It will be years before Ukraine joins the EU, as it is a long process with several stages, Zoltan Lomnici Jr. said. He cited the example of Croatia, which was admitted ten years after submitting its application. Ukraine is in an even more difficult situation because of the war. "The situation in the war-torn country leaves much to be desired in terms of both human rights and the economy, but meeting the EU's criteria in this area is a precondition for accession," he explained.

But Kiev also needs to address other issues that would still stand in the way of membership despite the war, such as corruption, the state of the judiciary, law enforcement, minority rights and economic viability for access to the single market.

The issue of Ukraine's accession to the EU has been a sensitive one, the expert noted. Although Ukraine had hoped to become a fast-track member in 2022, negotiations could not even start last April. Candidate status was granted in June 2022, but recently public opinion has not been as supportive as it once was. The constitutional lawyer cited a survey by the German weekly Der Spiegel in the summer: 45% of respondents were in favor of the country’s accession, while 42% were against. German politicians’ support of Ukraine’s integration is also waning: even left-wing Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Greens has expressed her reservations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is also cautious:

Ukraine's EU membership is unquestionable, but there is a protocol for accession that must be followed also this time,

she said earlier.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Photo by Friedemann Vogel/MTI/EPA

Western Balkans' accession is important for geostrategic reasons

In addition to Ukraine, a number of countries are waiting to join the EU, some of which have already applied for membership in Brussels: Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkiye – all of which have candidate status for the time being. Although Turkiye is an important member of the alliance and contributes the second largest military force in NATO, its integration into the EU is no longer a top priority for the West, Zoltan Lomnici Jr. said.

Talking about Serbia and the Western Balkans, however, he stressed that the early integration of the region would be important for Brussels in terms of geostrategy, but that this was recognized more clearly by the Central European member states (including Hungary in particular).

"The seventh of Viktor Orban's seven points on EU transformation is that Serbia should be admitted to the European Union. Serbia applied for membership in 2009 and has had candidate status since 2012," the expert explained. Asked how the candidate countries would welcome Ukraine's accession, the constitutional lawyer said that immediate, the country's  out-of-turn admission would certainly be seen as gross insult to those countries and their citizens.

Cover photo: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European Council President Charles Michel (from left to right) shake hands after a press conference during the first day of the two-day European Council meeting in Brussels on 9 October.  (Photo: MTI/EPA/Olivier Hoslet)