What Does The New Migration Pact Mean For Hungary?

Robert Gonczi, analyst at the Migration Research Institute, spoke about the new migration pact and its impact on Hungary.

Salla, 2023. november 23. Illegális bevándorlók az észak-finnországi Salla település Oroszországgal határos átkelõhelyénél 2023. november 23-án. Finnország november 24. éjféltõl lezárja átkelõit Oroszországgal közös határán egy a lappföldi Raja-Jooseppi határátkelõ kivételével, és az Európai Unió határ- és partvédelmi ügynökségének (Frontex) segítségét kérte a finn-orosz határon felgyülemlett illegális bevándorlók nagy száma miatt. MTI/AP/Lehtikuva/Jussi Nukari Fotó: Jussi Nukari

On Wednesday, the European Parliament's LIBE Committee adopted the migration pact, which states - among other things - that member states can choose between taking in asylum seekers, providing financial contributions or operational support.

Robert Gonczi (Photo: Tamas Gyurkovits)

The new migration pact has four main points, of which one could trigger substantial changes for Hungary, Robert Gonczi, an analyst at the Migration Research Institute, told the daily Magyar Nemzet newspaper.

This is the restructuring, or even abolition of, the Dublin system and the establishment of a new solidarity mechanism, the exact constraints of which have yet to be defined,

– he said.

– This is roughly how it would look: each state would determine independently how it could contribute to the management of migration at EU level. There is, however, a worrying element to this, as the scheme would presumably include the distribution of migrants within the EU's borders, the analyst explained.

Mr Gonczi emphasized that the so-called quota-based migrant scheme has been a constant element of European political discourse since 2015. Apparently, however, this is not the most effective solution, he added. Within the Schengen area, it is difficult to control who goes where, and to where they may leave.

The analyst cited a case study by the Migration Research Institute as an example, which showed that although the three Baltic states had previously taken in "quota migrants," ninety per cent of them disappeared from the three countries within a year and later turned up in Sweden, Germany and other Western European states. 

The single biggest additional impact of the migration pact is that it would transform the protection of the bloc's external borders, although the details on this remain unclear,

– the researcher said.

Illegal migrants arriving in Europe (Photo: Zoltan Havran)

"The redistribution scheme could also generate internal flows within the EU, with migrants leaving their countries of relocation for their desired destinations; the countries that they'd actually want to reach, as typically, the destination countries haven't changed," he stressed. However, as of now, the other EU states would be required to welcome these migrants, refugees and asylum seekers, he added. The real problem is that the reinforcement of the EU's external borders would be neglected, or completely ignored, although it would be crucial. 

Mr Gonzci added that last year, and probably this year too, there will be significant migratory pressure, but instead member states have started to focus on controlling their internal borders. There were several examples of this - Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria. This is not at all in line with previous Schengen agreements and will likely hamper the functioning of the European Union. 

In terms of migration flows, the numbers are already at their highest level since 2016, according to the analyst. It's crucial to highlight the 2023 figures, the highest since 2016, he said, adding that although reports by Frontex signal a negative change this January, this is mostly due to the usual drop in numbers during the winter period.

Cover photo: Illegal immigrants at the Salla border crossing with Russia in northern Finland on November 23, 2023 (Photo: MTI/AP/Lehtikuva/Jussi Nukar)