Analyst: PM Orban Outlined Key Aspects of Hungary's National Strategy As Change in World Order Unfolds

The significance of the connectivity theory, now a regular theme of PM Orban's speeches, is that we should not close ourselves into either the Western or Eastern bloc.

Agoston Samuel Mraz, head of the Nezopont Intitute (Photo: MTI/Zoltan Balogh)

According to the head of the Nezopont Institute, Viktor Orban presented the key elements of Hungary's national strategy to be followed in the wake of the unfolding change in the current world order. 

One aspect is that the so-called change in the current global order is not a threat but an opportunity for most countries, including Hungary.

Reacting to Mr. Orban's speech at Tusvanyos, Agoston Samuel Mraz explained on Hungary's M1 public news channel on Saturday that if someone views this as an opportunity, they will pursue an independent policy to make their own nation-state successful. Meanwhile, those who fear change will try to find potential or real supporters in another country.

The analyst added that Slovakia and Serbia, alongside Hungary, are pursuing precisely such an independent policy. He also mentioned that the Czech Republic and Austria might reach this phase after their next elections.

"The significance of the connectivity theory, now a regular theme in PM Orban's speeches, is that we should not close ourselves into either the Western or Eastern bloc but keep in touch with both," Mr. Mraz emphasized.

The head of the Nezopont Institute highlighted a key idea from Hungary's grand strategy, as outlined by PM Orban at Tusvanyos. According to this, if Donald Trump - who is committed to peace - wins the US presidential election in November, Hungary will have a peace budget, which could kickstart the strengthening of small and medium-sized businesses.

Reacting to the prime minister's words, Mr. Mraz underlined that Hungary does need a demographic turnaround for success and recalled that doubling the amount of family allowances could be a great help in this regard. This is something that PM Orban intends to extend to Hungarians living beyond the borders.

Among other things, the analyst recalled that - in contrast to the Western bourgeois elites - PM Orban sees the existence of nation-states not as a 100 or 200-year-old construct, but as a much deeper and much older reality.

In this context, the head of the Nezopont Institute alluded to a very intense relationship between Hungary's prime minister and Donald Trump, and pointed out that if the Republican presidential candidate is elected, he will lead his country back to the American nation-state strategy, moving away from the current strategy that goes beyond the ideas of national thought and national autonomy, as promoted by liberals during the recent period. 

According to Mr. Mraz, it has also become clear that Donald Trump sees himself as some type of insurance company. Therefore, Europe would do well to focus on itself and try to protect itself, because the United States - if Trump wins - will no longer provide free defense services to any country; this is something that we can all kiss goodbye to. The analyst argued that this was one of the reasons why Viktor Orban said the EU should be an economic, rather than a political union, which ought to be complemented by a defense union.

Mr. Mraz described PM Orban's view - that the so-called Paris-Berlin axis in Europe has disappeared and that Germany and France are no longer capable of governing Europe - as an exciting new idea.

"Paris thinks but doesn't act, while Berlin pursues a 'follow' policy," the analyst said, adding that Germany has essentially let go of the idea of running Europe together with France. The question is how they will react to the fact that, as PM Orban mentioned in his speech, control has been taken over by states further north.

Commenting on the premier's recent speech, the head of the Nezopont Institute recalled that 

according to Mr. Orban, when the European People's Party joined forces with the leftist-liberals, it became detached from its voters. While the right wing and the Patriots are pursuing non-elitist policies, the elitists are looking down on people who - in return - look back down on them. This has created a grave conflict between the people and European elites.

Concerning PM Orban's thoughts on the Russia-Ukraine war, Mr. Mraz pointed out that Viktor Orban's peace mission had done much to help him understand the mindset of the players, which - in the case of Ukraine - meant a rather aggressive desire to join the West and be recognized as some kind of border-guard state.

The Russians, on the other hand, as PM Orban said, want Ukraine to remain a buffer zone; otherwise, they will perceive it as a threat.

According to the analyst, it was not by chance that Viktor Orban emphasized that these two views should somehow be turned into a compromise to achieve peace.

Mr. Mraz noted that there was not one sentence in Viktor Orban's speech that would provide any real ammo for those expressing their indignation ex officio, on a regular basis. He said he expects that they'll try and stir up some hatred by cherry-picking certain words or thoughts. He also considered it important to highlight the part of Mr. Orban's speech focusing on employment, where Hungary's prime minister touched on the need to keep integrating members of the Roma community into the world of work.

Cover photo: Agoston Samuel Mraz (Photo: MTI/Zoltan Balogh)