Even Left-Leaning Pollster Agrees: This Summer Belonged to PM Orban

A growing number of signs appear to indicate that the 'Tisza myth,' construed by left-wing polling firms, is falling apart: after the head of the Publicus Institute admitted that Magyar Peter’s group had been overestimated while Fidesz had been underestimated, Balazs Bocskei, strategic director of the Idea Institute, explained that public sentiment could shift in favor of the governing parties, a trend supported by their latest survey. Mr. Bocskai emphasized that the summer was all about Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and that government measures could further strengthen Fidesz.

PM Orban arrives at the Civic Picnic, organized by the Foundation for a Civic Hungary, at the Dobozy Mansion in Kotcse, on September 10, 2022. Photo: MTI/Prime Minister’s Press Office/Zoltan Fischer)

Tangible Government Competence

Mr. Bocskei also pointed out that these measures could enhance public confidence in Fidesz’s ability to govern. “These measures fit into the narrative that despite all difficulties, the past years have been years of prosperity, and maintaining this stability and predictability is what is at stake in the next election,” he evaluated.

Notably, left-leaning analyst firms on the manipulation roundtable—including Medián, Zavecz Research, Republikon Institute, and the 21 Research Center — have been competing to report on Tisza’s sharply rising popularity since last fall. Ironically, Median, once hailed as a flagship pollster, recently published data claiming that Tisza had already caught up with Fidesz even in the villages.

Massive Fidesz Lead in Individual Constituencies

Meanwhile, major pollsters such as Nezopont and Szazadveg have consistently measured a stable, several-point lead for Fidesz in recent months. Surveys in individual constituencies also show that government parties lead even more confidently at the local level.

For example, in Jasz-Nagykun-Szolnok county’s 2nd individual constituency, Hungary's ruling Fidesz–Christian Democrat (KDNP) party alliance stands at 40.4%, while the Tisza Party enjoys 25.8% support. In Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén County’s 5th constituency, the ratio  is 38% to 27% in Fidesz’s favor.

 Prime Minister Viktor Orban told this year’s Bálványosi Summer Free University that he expects Fidesz–KDNP candidates to secure most individual mandates in next year’s election. 

According to him, under current conditions, government candidates would win roughly eighty individual constituencies, though the campaign goal is to secure 86–87 mandates.

Cover photo: PM Orban arrives at the Civic Picnic forum, organized by the Foundation for a Civic Hungary, in Kotcse on September 10, 2022.
(Photo: MTI / PM's Press Office / Zoltan Fischer)