The myth propagated by the so-called “manipulation roundtable” that Tisza is the most popular party in domestic politics is visibly crumbling. A few days ago, Andras Pulai, director of the Publicus Institute — hardly known for government-friendly views — spoke with unusual frankness about how national surveys may distort and exaggerate the popularity of Magyar Peter’s party. He also noted that at the local level — in most individual constituencies — Fidesz is in the lead.
Shifting Public Mood
Recently, Balazs Bocskei, strategic director of the Idea Institute, elaborated on Rita Fekete’s podcast that public sentiment could shift in Fidesz’s favor in the coming period (video at 17:35).
This trend is also reflected in Idea’s latest public opinion poll. According to the data, compared with their previous measurement, Tisza’s lead over Fidesz among the voting-age population has dropped to less than half. While in their survey released at the end of May Magyar Peter’s party led the government parties by nine percentage points, the latest measurement narrows the alleged to just four points.
Measures Starting to Take Effect
Interestingly, Mr. Bocskei — who is mostly associated with the left — believes this dynamic could continue, partly due to government measures announced in recent weeks, but also influenced by the prime minister’s extremely active media appearances.
“I dare say that this summer was all about Viktor Orban. Everything revolved around him, everyone talked about what he did, both pros and cons. […] In terms of effectiveness, it was a successful summer from Viktor Orban’s perspective,” the strategic director said. According to him, measures set to take effect in September — including the fixed 3% home loan available under the Home Start Program, a 15% pay increase for regional administrative employees, and expanded tax benefits for mothers — could further strengthen Fidesz’s position.