2025: The Year of Turnaround!

ANALYST'S VOICE – Hungary’s room for maneuver will expand significantly after January 20.

Viktor Orban and Donald Trump meet in Florida in December 2024 (Photo: AFP)

While Hungary's relations with the United States are set to improve, the country's battles with Brussels are expected to continue. However, Hungary’s bargaining position will be stronger than before. In Brussels corridors, this is referred to as the “Trump effect,” but it is more than that: Viktor Orban’s allies are gaining strength in more European countries, and the alliance of Patriots for Europe will also likely grow in 2025. Last December, Giorgia Meloni stepped down as chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). She will be succeeded by former Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki, with whom PM Orban had met before December's EU Summit in Brussels, alongside other leaders of the Patriots for Europe.

Behind the scenes, the potential unification of PM Orban's Patriots for Europe and the right-wing ECR looms, which could lead to the formation of the second-largest bloc in the European Parliament with 162 MEPs, compared to the European People’s Party’s (EPP) current 188 delegates.

And there are several signs pointing in this direction! On December 4, when Orban met with Giorgia Meloni in Rome, the Hungarian prime minister cryptically remarked: “Old friendship, new chapter, big plans!” This was likely a reference to a new type of cooperation. Moreover, Morawiecki, Meloni’s pick to chair the ECR, is a key ally of Viktor Orban. When the Patriots for Europe alliance was established, it was widely anticipated that Morawiecki and his Polish PiS party would join. One of the main reasons for the two separate party alliances has been the personal discord between Marine Le Pen and Giorgia Meloni. However, with Ms. Meloni stepping back, this obstacle may be removed. The most contentious issue between them has been the Ukraine war, but this may soon resolve, eliminating another point of conflict.

As is known, many ECR members supported the continuation of the war on national grounds, which put them at odds with PM Orban on the issue. However, Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20 will shift the dynamics: ceasefire negotiations with Vladimir Putin aimed at ending the war are anticipated, removing this obstacle between the two political blocs.

The early parliamentary elections in Germany on February 23 will also be critical from Hungary’s perspective. The German government that collapsed late last year was a major adversary of Hungary: it supported the war, migration, gender propaganda, and the suspension of EU funds due to Hungary. The primary source of conflict for Hungary wasn’t Chancellor Olaf Scholz himself but the Greens, who, as coalition partners, dominated foreign and economic policy. They disregarded both German and European interests, instead aligning themselves with American Democrats. This had severe consequences for the German economy, negatively impacting Hungary as well.

Polls suggest that the next chancellor will come from the CDU/CSU grouping, likely Friedrich Merz, but the composition of his coalition remains to be seen. The CDU/CSU traditionally considers the interests of German economic stakeholders, which - in and of itself - is good news for Hungary, where many German companies operate. Moreover, their stance on the war has also shifted: 

Merz has called for presenting a unified European peace plan, signaling a departure from supporting the war’s continuation. This is another positive sign for Hungary.

Early 2025 has also brought political change to neighboring Austria, where the chancellor of the European People’s Party - an ally of Peter Magyar - stepped down. Regardless of the Austrian situations's outcome, one thing is clear: Viktor Orban and his Fidesz's ally, the Austrian Freedom Party, is likely to form the next government and provide the next chancellor.

Now, in addition to these favorable international developments, 2025 is also expected to be an easier year for Hungary domestically.

Hungary will see unprecedented wage hikes, projected to total 40 percent by 2027. The real value of the minimum wage will rise by 29 percent, with plans to bring it to 50 percent of the average wage. Additionally, 2025 is set to bring significant economic growth, to be accompanied by a state investment boom. These developments will severely undermine Peter Magyar’s political prospects,

as the opposition's new hopeful has palpably ridden the wave on protest sentiment and economic woes experienced mid-cycle, so - if there is tangible economic growth and noticeable wage increases - his political maneuvering room will significantly decrease. This is particularly important as preparations for the 2026 parliamentary elections will begin in earnest during the latter half of 2025. This year, the political parties will finalize their candidate selections, clarify their cooperation strategies, and define their key messages for the election campaigns.