Z. Tunes in to Peace

Every step toward peace strengthens the position of today’s Hungarian diplomacy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends the NATO-Ukraine Council working dinner during the two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO's Brussels headquarters, on October 17, 2024. (Photo: MTI/EPA pool/Olivier Matthys)

Although peace was not achieved by Christmas, efforts to push for an end to the war in Ukraine have been far from futile. Ahead of this year’s Orthodox Christmas, the Ukrainian president openly discussed the possibility of a ceasefire. Volodymyr Zelensky, in an unusually long, multi-hour interview for a head of state, emphasized that he would be willing to negotiate with Russia, if NATO provided security guarantees.

The politician, who has frequently showcased his acting skills during his six-year-long—and seemingly never-ending—presidency, is now referring to a “diplomatic path” and gradually moving away from his earlier saber-rattling rhetoric.

Back in the 80's, when we were in school, we had a saying for moments like this: "Good morning!" — a slightly mocking remark for someone who finally caught on. And now, something does appear to be dawning on Volodymyr Oleksandrovych. He is beginning to accept the idea that his besieged country will undergo fundamental changes within weeks. Joe Biden — if he can spare five minutes between granting his son a pardon and bestowing honors on George Soros — will likely shovel a few more billion dollars to Ukraine. But, this is truly the endgame. As of January 20, the president of the United States will be Donald Trump, and Zelensky is already cozying up, like a cat, not only to him but also — ever the adaptable actor — to the burly figure sitting in the director’s chair.

That figure is called reality, and it dictates that Ukraine cannot win its war against Moscow. At least, not without sparking World War III. In that case — after hundreds of thousands of dead, disabled, and orphaned, and millions of refugees — it would be better for Ukraine to pull out now while it can still secure at least marginally acceptable terms.

Of course, these terms won’t be ideal. At this point, Ukraine is unlikely to regain its pre-2014 borders anytime soon; for example, Russia will surrender Crimea about the same time the French decide to haul the Eiffel Tower to Munich for Oktoberfest. Meanwhile, recent battles near strategically important Pokrovsk have not signaled Ukrainian success. After years of war, a weary Ukrainian populace could finally live in peace — without bombings, forced conscriptions, and endless military funerals — at the cost of territorial concessions and certain protection guarantees.

That is, of course, if the conditions are also acceptable to the Russians — it takes two to tango. The war costs them hundreds of millions of dollars daily (which, surprisingly, they are managing). It’s easily conceivable that, alongside the opportunity to save face — a narrative as favorable as possible for the resolution — even Zelensky’s namesake, Vladimir Vladimirovich, might stand ready to exit this ordeal.

But this requires a historic moment: the transition of Biden to Trump in the White House and the opening of a new chapter.

The rest is diplomacy. Within weeks, we may indeed find out what the Americans have in their playbook. Until now, Trump, constrained by legal restrictions, could at most converse with global political actors, not negotiate. If all goes well, the conditions for resolving the Ukraine conflict — at least a lasting ceasefire — could soon be on the table. Discussions about security guarantees acceptable to the Russians could take shape, just as how Europe — that roaring mouse — may align itself with America’s new foreign policy, by the summer NATO summit. And as for guarantees, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum’s provisions for Ukraine have not stood the test of time. Still, every step forward toward peace strengthens the position of today’s Hungarian diplomacy. And if a ceasefire does follow the talks between Trump and Putin, the smiles on the faces of pro-war naysayers will be anything but genuine.