That is, of course, if the conditions are also acceptable to the Russians — it takes two to tango. The war costs them hundreds of millions of dollars daily (which, surprisingly, they are managing). It’s easily conceivable that, alongside the opportunity to save face — a narrative as favorable as possible for the resolution — even Zelensky’s namesake, Vladimir Vladimirovich, might stand ready to exit this ordeal.
But this requires a historic moment: the transition of Biden to Trump in the White House and the opening of a new chapter.
The rest is diplomacy. Within weeks, we may indeed find out what the Americans have in their playbook. Until now, Trump, constrained by legal restrictions, could at most converse with global political actors, not negotiate. If all goes well, the conditions for resolving the Ukraine conflict — at least a lasting ceasefire — could soon be on the table. Discussions about security guarantees acceptable to the Russians could take shape, just as how Europe — that roaring mouse — may align itself with America’s new foreign policy, by the summer NATO summit. And as for guarantees, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum’s provisions for Ukraine have not stood the test of time. Still, every step forward toward peace strengthens the position of today’s Hungarian diplomacy. And if a ceasefire does follow the talks between Trump and Putin, the smiles on the faces of pro-war naysayers will be anything but genuine.
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