According to the analysis, the accession of a new member state would significantly burden the EU budget, a cost that would be ultimately paid for by the European public.
Nevertheless, the political will is strongly leaning towards Ukraine's accession: Ursula von der Leyen, Manfred Weber, and the European People's Party (EPP), led by him—with the support of Peter Magyar and the Tisza Party—are advocating for an accelerated membership process, disregarding sensitive economic, political, and rule-of-law issues. Meanwhile, the Hungarian government has initiated a consultative vote on the matter.
– they wrote. The current calculations show that the enormous changes to the EU budget would create a problem that would be difficult to handle, not just for Hungary, but for the entire EU. They called it particularly concerning that there are uncertain data regarding the indicators of Hungary's Eastern neighbour, therefore the efforts of EU leaders urging Ukraine’s accession is deemed rather irresponsible: the exact borders of Ukraine are unclear, as is the change in the country’s population over the last three years. The greatest concern, according to the Budapest-based Centre for Fundamental Rights, is that after Ukraine’s accession, the economic indicators would shift dramatically: Hungary’s regions would receive less cohesion funding, while the majority of the common agricultural policy funds would be directed towards the war-torn country.
According to estimates by the Budapest-based think tank, Ukraine’s accession would result in Hungarian businesses and households losing at least ten trillion forints, primarily due to a reduction in EU funds. The final tally of financial costs could be much higher: calculations clearly show that Kyiv's EU membership would not only increase the burden on the shared budget, but would also fundamentally alter the distribution of cohesion funds.
Taking into account the current and expected new EU average after Ukraine's accession, and the decline in the GNI per capita indicator — which serves as a basis to calculate assistance funding — some Hungarian regions could also expect to receive fewer funds, as there are currently several regions that are among the largest beneficiaries of cohesion funds. According to their calculations, three Hungarian regions — West Transdanubia, Central Transdanubia, and Pest county — would no longer be eligible for maximum support after Ukraine’s accession. Hungary would lose almost 210 billion forints from the common agricultural policy and rural development funds, and 664 billion from direct agricultural payments. Following the loss of eligibility, the three aforementioned regions would receive 4.5 trillion forints less in support due to Ukraine’s accession, they explain. They also point out that, in addition to the economic impacts, many other factors have rightfully come under scrutiny in the debates about Ukraine’s membership: beyond the risks in the food industry — such as the complete lack of GMO regulation in Ukraine — public safety problems would also arise with the country’s inclusion, and national pension systems and labour markets would face entirely new challenges.
For these reasons, the Hungarian right wing firmly stands by the position that Ukraine’s accession in the near future could have catastrophic consequences, not only for Hungary but for the entire EU. According to the Hungarian government’s stance, Ukraine’s membership could destabilize the EU budget, as well as present new economic and security challenges for the community.
– they said. They also recalled that, in response to political pressure from Brussels, the Hungarian government decided to initiate a consultative vote to provide Hungarian voters with a direct say in a matter that would significantly impact their everyday lives, security, and economic situation.
Cover photo: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (Photo: AFP)
