Despite being one of the world's largest ethnic groups without a state, the international community often only pays attention to the Kurds when armed conflicts or political shifts bring them back into the spotlight. Estimates suggest there are 35–45 million Kurds, mostly residing in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. However, Castel notes that the Kurdish community is far from politically unified, which adds to the complexity of their situation.
(Photo: AFP)
Demographics and Political Implications
The Kurdish population growth is shaping the region's future. In Turkey, the fertility rate in 2024 was about 1.5 children per woman, but in the eastern Kurdish-majority regions, this number was between 3 and 4 children per woman. Over time, this could significantly increase the Kurdish share of the population, leading to potential political shifts.
Castel compared:
Turkey’s demographic divide and subsequent impacts to a scenario where regions with fertility rates similar to Ireland and to Nigeria coexist within one country, inevitably generating political tensions. Demographic imbalances previously shaped the power struggle between Turkey’s western 'White Turks' and eastern 'Black Turks', ultimately leading to Erdogan’s Islamist “Second Revolution”, which dismantled Ataturk’s secular legacy.
However, Castel warned against overstating projections about a future Kurdish majority in Turkey:
The demographic balance of Turkey's ethnic groups is progressing with the elegance of a one-armed gorilla, and is compounded by a further asymmetry: that of Turkish and Kurd fertility rates. The imbalance manifests at two different levels. The forecasts indicating a Kurdish majority in the country by the 2040s, are likely to be gross exaggerations. The same processes that reduced fertility rates among secular Turks are now affecting conservative Turks and will eventually impact the Kurds as well. Urbanization, improved education for women, and the transition from rural to urban lifestyles will gradually slow Kurdish population growth.
While the timing of when these forces will affect the various ethnicities comprising Turkey's population is highly varied, lending to meta-questions such as what is Turkey,
the expert states. Turkey’s Kurdish population mainly influences politics demographically, while in Syria, the Kurds have played an active military and political role in the civil war.
Kurds in Syria: a Shifting Strategy
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) played a key role in the Syrian civil war, particularly in defeating ISIS. Now, they appear to be reaching an understanding with the new Syrian government. The SDF envisions a secular, democratic, and federal Syria, but this seems to be in sharp contrast with the current Damascus government, which is dominated by HTS-backed Sunni Islamist ideology. According to Robert C. Castel this has emerged from the paradigm shift within the organization.
A key point to note about SDF is that while it is a Kurdish-led group, is not exclusively Kurdish—some experts argue that at certain points, Kurds were even a minority within the group.
Castel went on to explain competing groups within the Kurdish community.
The second point is that within the Kurdish movement, three competing strategies exist: that of an independent, sovereign Kurdish state, that of autonomy within a federal structure of existing states, and that of cultural and nation's rights within a strong and coherent Syria or Iraq. The SDF has recently embraced the third option, abandoning the goal of federalism in favor of securing rights within a unified Syria.
Why Did the SDF Shift Its Approach?
Castel identifies three main reasons:
Declining U.S. support – After ISIS was defeated, Washington lost interest in backing the Kurds. Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria.
Rising Turkish pressure – Turkey has intensified its military campaigns against Kurdish groups.
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Peace Efforts – Despite not directly involving the SDF, calls for disarmament by PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan signaled a broader shift in Kurdish strategy.
Faced with diminished Western backing and Turkish hostility, Syria’s Kurds saw compromising with Damascus as the least risky path forward. However, the agreement is fragile and could collapse due to past sectarian violence and the elimination ,
Robert C. Castel warned, referring to the elimination of Bashar al-Assad loyalists.
Independent Kurdistan: Unrealistic
Despite their large population, the Kurds remain geographically fragmented and divided over their future course and the necessity of an independent Kurdish state. Castel argues that geopolitical realities make an independent Kurdistan highly unlikely.
Two major obstacles stand in the way of a Kurdish state. One is the deep internal divisions within Kurdish society. The second obstacle is lack of international support—except for Israel, no major power actively supports an independent Kurdistan. While the U.S. and European nations sympathize with the Kurds, they uphold territorial integrity and prioritize Turkey’s interests and stability in the region. Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran—the four countries with Kurdish minorities—are staunchly opposed to Kurdish independence, even though they tolerate some levels of independence depending on the circumstances. Even Russia, despite occasional flirtation with the Kurdish cause, prefers client states rather than backing separatist movements,
the expert outlined the stance of relevant players.
Castel concludes by describing the Kurdish struggle as the ultimate lesson in realpolitik:
In principle, morally, and ideologically, everyone agrees that the Kurds 'deserve' a state. But in reality, outside of Israel, no country has a strategic interest in creating one. Thus, despite their large numbers and historical aspirations, the Kurds remain one of the world’s largest stateless nations, and their long ordeal is far from over.
Cover Image: A Kurdish woman holding a Kurdish flag in Iraq, March 20, 2025 (Photo: AFP).
