Robert C. Castel: The Ordeal of the Kurds Continues

The situation of the Kurds in the Middle East is highly complex and has influenced the domestic and foreign policies of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran for decades. Robert C. Castel, a senior columnist at Magyar Nemzet and a security policy advisor at the Center for Fundamental Rights, discusses demographic trends, political motivations, and the prospects of an independent Kurdistan.

A Kurdish woman holding a Kurdish flag in Iraq, March 20, 2025 (Photo: AFP).

Kurds in Syria: a Shifting Strategy

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) played a key role in the Syrian civil war, particularly in defeating ISIS. Now, they appear to be reaching an understanding with the new Syrian government. The SDF envisions a secular, democratic, and federal Syria, but this seems to be in sharp contrast with the current Damascus government, which is dominated by HTS-backed Sunni Islamist ideology. According to Robert C. Castel this has emerged from the paradigm shift within the organization.

A key point to note about SDF is that while it is a Kurdish-led group, is not exclusively Kurdish—some experts argue that at certain points, Kurds were even a minority within the group.

Castel went on to explain competing groups within the Kurdish community.

The second point is that within the Kurdish movement, three competing strategies exist: that of an independent, sovereign Kurdish state, that of autonomy within a federal structure of existing states, and that of cultural and nation's rights within a strong and coherent Syria or Iraq. The SDF has recently embraced the third option, abandoning the goal of federalism in favor of securing rights within a unified Syria.

Why Did the SDF Shift Its Approach?

Castel identifies three main reasons:

Declining U.S. support – After ISIS was defeated, Washington lost interest in backing the Kurds. Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria.
Rising Turkish pressure – Turkey has intensified its military campaigns against Kurdish groups.
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Peace Efforts – Despite not directly involving the SDF, calls for disarmament by PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan signaled a broader shift in Kurdish strategy.
Faced with diminished Western backing and Turkish hostility, Syria’s Kurds saw compromising with Damascus as the least risky path forward. However, the agreement is fragile and could collapse due to past sectarian violence and the elimination ,

Robert C. Castel warned, referring to the elimination of Bashar al-Assad loyalists.

Independent Kurdistan: Unrealistic

Despite their large population, the Kurds remain geographically fragmented and divided over their future course and the necessity of an independent Kurdish state. Castel argues that geopolitical realities make an independent Kurdistan highly unlikely.

Two major obstacles stand in the way of a Kurdish state. One is the deep internal divisions within Kurdish society. The second obstacle is lack of international support—except for Israel, no major power actively supports an independent Kurdistan. While the U.S. and European nations sympathize with the Kurds, they uphold territorial integrity and prioritize Turkey’s interests and stability in the region. Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran—the four countries with Kurdish minorities—are staunchly opposed to Kurdish independence, even though they tolerate some levels of independence depending on the circumstances. Even Russia, despite occasional flirtation with the Kurdish cause, prefers client states rather than backing separatist movements,

the expert outlined the stance of relevant players.

Castel concludes by describing the Kurdish struggle as the ultimate lesson in realpolitik:

In principle, morally, and ideologically, everyone agrees that the Kurds 'deserve' a state. But in reality, outside of Israel, no country has a strategic interest in creating one. Thus, despite their large numbers and historical aspirations, the Kurds remain one of the world’s largest stateless nations, and their long ordeal is far from over.

Cover Image: A Kurdish woman holding a Kurdish flag in Iraq, March 20, 2025 (Photo: AFP).