Zelensky under enormous pressure from within and outside of Ukraine

History teaches us that wars usually end in one of two ways: either one side wins or an impasse ensues. Peace in Ukraine does not appear to be within sight with a maddening deadlock unfolding in the country, which is Hungary's next door neighbor in the east. In the ongoing war, the leader of one country is shouldering plenty of burdens, while the other has plenty of time and is keeping events under control, enjoying significant social backing, Zoltan Kiszelly, director of political analysis at the Szazadveg Foundation, told the Hungarian daily Magyar Nemzet.

Hága, 2023. május 4. Volodimir Zelenszkij ukrán elnök nyilatkozik a sajtó képviselõinek Hágában 2023. május 4-én. MTI/EPA/ANP/Remko De Waal Fotó: Remko De Waal

Death toll way too high

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is receiving plenty of advice from Western countries on how to bring the war raging in his country to an end, with most of the guidance pointing in one direction: give up the territories occupied so far and start peace talks. The war would end if Zelensky handed over another stretch of Ukrainian territory to Russian President Vladimir Putin, advisors argue.

In May, Mr Zelensky disclosed that French President Emmanuel Macron had warned him that all additional killing could be avoided with some concessions. Speaking at the World Economic Forum later that month, former US Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger advised Western leaders against forcing Mr Putin into an embarrassing defeat, suggesting instead that they should press Zelensky to cede occupied Ukrainian territory as a means of putting an end to the war. Current US state and defence secretaries have also repeatedly hinted that Ukraine will eventually have to make territorial concessions. Subsequently,  similar arguments abounded in influential  European and US newspapers.

Conservative Polish politician Mariusz Dzierzawski also penned an opinion piece, citing the example of the Finns. The Soviet-Finnish War (also known as the Winter War) took place between November 1939 and March 1940, ending with the Finns deciding to give up about ten per cent of their territory in exchange for peace and future independence.

However, Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that no such scenario is on his table. No wonder, since the Ukrainian president cannot afford to give in to any Russian demands. Since the outbreak of the war, too many people have died for the glory that the Ukrainian president envisions, too many children have been orphaned and too many parents have lost their kids. According to a recently leaked Pentagon document, Ukraine has lost some 20 thousand soldiers on the battlefield, with over 100 thousand wounded, and thousands of civilians injured or killed. No one can verify how big these numbers are in fact, but it seems certain that they are probably much higher.

One side is running out of time, the other side has plenty 

Zoltan Kiszelly, director of political analysis at Szazadveg, told Magyar Nemzet that Zelensky is shouldering enormous pressure not only from within the country, but also from outside.

He has to come up with something now, not only because the Ukrainians have already made too many sacrifices, but because the West expects the country to reconquer as much territory as possible before the NATO summit. Until then, NATO member states should put together a security guarantee. That's what is taking place now, there's a month to go. This is the huge pressure from the outside that's devolving on Mr Zelensky. He has to prove why he has been supplied with weapons and he must achieve a result that will freeze the conflict before the US presidential elections,

the expert told our newspaper.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is in a far more comfortable position to keep events on the radar and under control until the upcoming Russian presidential race.  Currently, he enjoys close to eighty-percent support,  Mr Kiszelly said, adding that Mr Putin has to avoid coming under social pressure between now and the election. Unlike his Ukrainian counterpart, the Russian president has plenty of time, because the Americans certainly don't want to raise a new army or send troops for a while, and the Europeans will not be able to supply weapons for some time because they have no stocks," Zoltan Kiszelly explained. He also pointed out that

the Russians are not under time pressure, because the country is a nuclear power. The pressure weighing on Putin is not as heavy as the one on the Ukrainian president, because the Russian head of state has to make sure that the conflict stays on the radar until next March, and then he can see how much loss Ukrainian troops have suffered. He will also wait to see who will win the next US presidential elections, and if Europe can send weapons.

The expert also told our paper that all attacks, explosions and actions that take place in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine are essentially playing into Putin's hand, highlighting that

this is psychological warfare, these are not partisan attacks, but actions carried out by special squads. This is called the Pearl Harbor moment.

 

Coincidences rarely occur in war

The attack on the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in Russian-controlled Kherson, causing a breach in the dam of the reservoir, is perhaps no coincidence either. Earlier on Monday, the Russians reported that Ukraine's armed forces had launched a large-scale offensive on five fronts in the southern Donetsk region, shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainians were ready for a counter-offensive.

Anton Bendarzsevszkij, an expert on post-Soviet countries and director of research at Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation, told our paper that 

the blowing up of the dam affects Ukrainian activities both at a communication and at an operational level.

At the communication level, attention has been diverted from the Ukrainian counter-offensive and Ukrainian incursions into the Russian Belgorod region, as now all the news reports are about Kakhovka. At the operational level, the Ukrainian leadership's primary task now has shifted from the preparation or continuation of the counter-offensive, to dealing with the consequences of the disaster, the expert said. The breached dam of the reservoir caused flooding, and with about eighty settlements being threatened evacuation of residents is under way. 

Cover photo: Volodymyr Zelensky at a press briefing in the Hague on 4 May 2023 (Photo: MTI/EPA/ANP/Remko De Waal)