Roller-coaster year for relations
2023 has been a roller-coaster ride for US-China relations. Right at the beginning of the year, a huge scandal erupted between Washington and Beijing after the Americans shot down what they called a Chinese spy balloon flying in US airspace. Following the incident, relations, which were already troubled by various US sanctions and a policy of "decoupling" (separating the Chinese and US - or, in the bigger picture, Western - economies), reached an all-time low. This, however, was followed by a series of high-level meetings, with State Secretary Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo travelling to Beijing in a bid to settle relations.
Their efforts were not without "reward": in November 2023, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in San Francisco, where they both spoke about promoting cooperation based on mutual respect.
The European Union's relations with China have not developed any better. Despite visits to Beijing this year by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the relationship at EU level has been marked by trade restrictions, punitive tariffs and threats of sanctions.
Currently, the United States and the European Union are striving for closer ties with China only at the level of communication, and there is no real action behind the rhetoric. And Beijing knows this,
Levente Horvath explained. By contrast, China would be open to cooperation, which can perhaps be best demonstrated through the infrastructure projects of the parties, the director of the Eurasia Center pointed out.
Chinese successes, Western hurdles
China's flagship project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - formerly known as the One Belt, One Road Initiative - celebrated its tenth anniversary this year. Although Beijing has made numerous invitations to EU Member States, only Hungary is now part of the initiative, after Italy announced its withdrawal in early December, coinciding with the EU-China summit, and Viktor Orban was the only EU leader to attend the conference marking the anniversary. In recent years, the European Union and the United States have launched their own projects, the Global Gateway and the Build Back Better, respectively.
Beijing has repeatedly stated that China would be happy to work together and pair up the BRI with the European project, because that is exactly the point: enhancing connectivity,
Levente Horvath pointed out, adding that these Chinese ambitions often fall on deaf ears, as the EU envisions the Global Gateway as an alternative to the BRI, and not as a platform for cooperation.
This Western perception is likely the reason for reports of the BRI's successes over the past ten years, while there is no news at all about its Western rivals.
In the past decade, more than a hundred countries around the world have joined the BRI, with Beijing investing nearly $70 billion in 2022 alone.
It was always apparent that Western projects serve the short-term interests of the West, and that they also push a kind of export of democracy, which may not be universally accepted, the expert said. In contrast, China is willing to invest in projects that do not necessarily serve solely its own interests. In any case, Beijing makes it clear that it does not wish to impose its own political system on the states involved in the projects and does not interfere in their internal affairs.
End of a five hundred-year era
Much of what we are currently seeing from the West, especially from the United States, in its policy towards China, is primarily attributable to a transition in the world order with the transatlantic influence declining worldwide, according to Levente Horvath.
The five hundred years of Western hegemony are coming to an end, which is why they are trying to do everything they can to if not prevent, at least slow the transformation of world order,
the Eurasia Center director stressed. The strategy includes the demonization of various big powers as well as the deliberate obstruction of their development. Instead of perceiving the situation as a rivalry, the West should develop a peaceful cooperation based on its own interests along side the mutual benefits," the expert said, adding that such a partnership would enable the world to develop at an even faster and more dynamic pace.
Whether this directional change on the part of the West will happen remains to be seen. What is certain is that 2024 will be a key year in this respect. In Europe, there will be EU elections next year, while across the Atlantic, there will be presidential elections, both of which are likely to be contested by candidates who promote national interests and pragmatic cooperation - although this does not necessarily mean a potential 'warming up' of Sino-US relations .
But there is another important factor to be reckoned with in 2024 that could sway the relationship between Europe and China: Hungary holds the the rotating presidency of the EU next year.
Hungary began diversifying its international relations in 2010, with its opening up to the East and pursuing a real-politik policy towards China, that seeks cooperation rather than competition, the expert pointed out. The question, he continued, is to what extent and how effectively Hungary can implement these ideas during its six-month presidency.
Cover photo: Prime Minister Viktor Orban (left) is received by Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) in Beijing on October 17, 2023 (Photo: MTI/Prime Minister's Press Office/Zoltan Fischer)
