NATO-Russia Nuclear War Would Entail a Death Toll Over 5 Billion People

As we enter the third year of the Russia-Ukraine war, the specter of all-out nuclear war between NATO and Russia has made a return in the wake of French President Emmanuel Macron's warmongering statements and Russian President Vladimir Putin's repeated warnings. Russia's president has repeatedly drawn the red line, saying that if his country's sovereignty is under threat or if the West becomes more involved in the war in Ukraine, he will not hesitate to use te country's nuclear weapons. President Macron repeatedly stressed the need to send NATO troops to Ukraine and said that there were no red lines for him. In a state of war psychosis, as outlined a move to deploy France's nuclear weapons against Russia.

The Castle Bravo nuclear test, the detonation of the most powerful nuclear device ever tested by the United States (Photo: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

We are in the last hour before nuclear war, and the biblical doomsday can come at any time. The image of a nuclear holocaust appearing in literature, TV series and Hollywood movies during the Cold War has made a comeback as the US-led NATO and the Russia-led power bloc are pitted against each other through the proxy war in Ukraine. NATO's nearly 3.5 million strong army and Russia's 1.2 million strong army could clash at any moment if, instead of de-escalation efforts, NATO follows pro-war French President Emmanuel Macron's plan to deploy NATO troops in Ukrainian territory. The sanctions of a historic scale imposed against Russia did not achieve the desired effect of bleeding out the Russian war machine. However, the outcome of a total war between the two blocs will not depend on tens of millions of soldiers to be drafted; it will not be a conventional warfare.

A nuclear holocaust is ever closer (Source: Federal government of the United States)

Huge arsenal

The world's nuclear stockpile is stored at an estimated 111 locations in 14 countries, according to an overview produced by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). Russia has an estimated 48 permanent nuclear weapon storage sites, of which more than half are on bases for operational forces. Many of the Russian storage sites are in close proximity to each other near large, highly populated areas. The United States stores its nuclear weapons at 21 locations in 13 states and five European countries. In the event of a nuclear war, these sites are all targets, which will most likely be hit in series of strikes by the warring parties in order to prevent further striking back.

An all-out nuclear war between Russia and the US-led NATO would lead to a nuclear holocaust. If one side launches nuclear missiles, the other side would detect them and fire back before they hit the target. The fate of humanity depends on a small circle. Let's assume that the Russians break through the Ukrainian front and push deep into Ukraine. The United States then launches a pre-emptive strike against Russia launching nuclear ballistic missiles stationed in Europe, which reach Russia in just fifteen minutes. In response, the Russians launch ballistic missiles across the Arctic Circle into the US core area, which hit their designated sites in twenty minutes.

Ominous scenario

According to simulations, the very first strikes are high-altitude EMP attacks that bake electronics and power grids by creating an electromagnetic pulse of tens of thousands of volts per meter. Subsequent strikes will target command and control systems, military bases and nuclear launchers. Then the other intercontinental ballistic missiles are fired targeting major cities, partly because they have military installations and partly to prevent the enemy's post-war reconstruction. Each impact creates a fireball about as hot as the Sun's core, followed by a radioactive mushroom cloud.

These intense explosions vaporize people nearby and cause fires and blindness further away. The spread of the fireball then causes a blast wave that damages and destroys nearby buildings. Since several US allies have nuclear weapons, Russia will target these countries as well. The two countries will mutually bomb each other's strategic facilities, major economic centers, populous cities, military bases and various nuclear bases. Within the first few hours of nuclear war, hundreds of millions of people will be killed. Firestorms engulf many cities, where gale-force winds fan the flames, igniting anything that can burn, melting glass and some metals, and turning asphalt into flammable hot liquid. 

This image taken in 1970 shows a French nuclear test on Mururoa, in French Polynesia (Photo: AFP)

The resulting smoke rises into the stratosphere, far above the rain clouds that would normally wash the smoke away. This black smoke is heated by sunlight and can float like a hot air balloon for up to a decade. The jet streams are so fast that it only takes a few days for the smoke to spread over much of the northern hemisphere, which will remain freezing cold in summer. Scientific studies estimate that more than five billion people could starve to death; 99 percent of people in the US, Europe, Russia and China would die.

Suddenly, hundreds and thousands of ballistic missiles would be launched during a nuclear war (Photo: DPA Picture-Alliance via AFP)

The fate of survivors

After Europe, the United States and Russia are wiped off the face of the earth, a nuclear holocaust would be a veritable Mad Max scenario. It is important to note that the nuclear winter will not last more than a decade, so it is not the dawn of a new ice age, but is projected to cause immediate climate change within a few weeks.

The phenomenon will disrupt our climate system faster than any living thing can adapt. Winters will be much longer, summers shorter and colder or vanishing. There is less evaporation over the oceans, which means less rain and potentially major droughts. Without summers and sufficient rainfall, growing seasons will shorten or even collapse. Highly productive agricultural regions, which provide food for the majority of humanity, will also fall through. Temperatures in these areas would remain below freezing for years, preventing any crops from growing. 

All of humanity has only a few weeks' worth of crops and food supplies, not enough to survive the drastic drop in production. In addition to all this, it is also worth mentioning that modern agriculture is an extremely complex affair. One only has to think of how food prices started to rise globally after the Russia-Ukraine war. Agriculture requires a huge supply chain, fertilizers, chemicals and a large number of modern specialized machines to achieve productivity. After such a devastating war, there will be no more available fuel, fertilizers, spare parts and a complete lack of the necessary infrastructure.

Cover photo: The Castle Bravo nuclear test, the detonation of the most powerful nuclear device ever tested by the United States (Photo: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)