The Fidesz-Christian Democrats (KDNP) alliance (44 percent) would win the parliamentary election, if it were held this Sunday. Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) with seven percent and the Democratic Coalition (DK) with six percent would also win parliamentary seats, Real-PR 93 told Magyar Nemzet about the findings of their most recent public opinion poll.
The survey looked at which party voters would cast their ballots for if the parliamentary election were held this Sunday. The results are valid for both the total population and for the decided voters.
The Fidesz-KDNP enjoys 38 percent support among the total population, which corresponds to three million Fidesz sympathizers participating in or abstaining from the election based on data from the 2022 census. Thus, even when the margins of error for the total population are taken into account, the governing parties lead by a significant margin.
With 25 percent support, the Tisza Party can reach a maximum of 1.98 million supporters. Our Homeland has 320 thousand sympathizers in the total population, while the Democratic Coalition has 240 thousand.
Decided voters would vote for the government again
44 percent of the decided voters support the governing parties. This would a secure a clear lead exceeding the margin of error, that is, an election victory for the Fidesz-KDNP.
In total, Fidesz has as many sympathizers as it had voters in 2022, including the holders of dual citizenship in neighboring countries.
The key question for the governing parties is whether they can mobilize their currently much less active supporters until the next elections.
The Tisza Party could achieve a result of 35 percent among decided voters, thus improving its result reached in the June EP elections by five percentage points, but it is still nine percentage points behind the governing parties.
Thus, the support of the Tisza Party will just reach the popularity of the joint opposition list led by Peter Marki-Zay in 2022.
It also applies to the period after the EP elections that the Tisza Party was able to gain supporters at the expense of the left-wing parties.
Our Homeland has seven percent, while the Democratic Coalition has six percent among decided voters. With four percent support, the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party would probably achieve a result below the five percent parliamentary threshold.
In rural areas, support for the Fidesz-KDNP is outstanding, at 47 percent, while in the capital, 33 percent of the decided voters support the government. In contrast, the Tisza Party has higher popularity in Budapest (42 percent), while it has 33 percent support in the rest of the country.
The poll was conducted by telephone interviewing a thousand people between October 28 and 30 on a sample representative of the adult population by sex, age and place of residence. The margin of error is +/-3.2 percent. The figure shows the exact range of error.
