Gyorgy Nogradi: Ukraine’s Accession Would Tear the EU Apart

Ukraine’s demographic indicators were already the worst on the continent before the war, and they have further deteriorated due to emigration and the loss of lives on the battlefield. In addition, the country’s economy lies in ruins, and the government in Kyiv remains dependent on continuous aid. According to security policy expert Gyorgy Nogradi, Ukraine’s accession to the European Union would be a grave mistake, as it would devastate the bloc’s economy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President Antonio Costa in Brussels on March 6, 2025 (Photo: AFP)

According to security policy expert Gyorgy Nogradi, Ukraine is in the midst of an exceptionally deep demographic and economic crisis, further exacerbated by the government’s decision to register men between the ages of 18 and 25 for potential conscription. Despite this, both the European Union and the Kyiv leadership are making great efforts to expedite Ukraine’s EU membership.

Ukraine’s EU accession would pose a massive economic burden (Photo: AFP)

Ukraine’s Population Is Rapidly Declining

Even before the outbreak of war, Ukraine had the worst demographic situation in Europe, with natural population decline numbering in the hundreds of thousands annually. Today, the situation is even worse due to high levels of emigration and battlefield losses.

The main problem is that Ukraine’s population has been in continuous decline since the country gained independence in 1991. One indication of this was the 2014 Crimea conflict, which resulted in the loss of the peninsula. Another is the ongoing three-year war, which has further intensified this trend. A significant portion of the population is steadily moving westward, and while no one knows the exact figures, millions have left the country,

− said Gyorgy Nogradi, adding however, that the integration of Ukrainian refugees into host societies has been far from smooth.

Another pressing issue is the crime rate among migrants. About two weeks ago, Germany released data indicating that migrants commit crimes at a rate seven to eight times higher than German citizens. According to these statistics, Syria ranks first on this list, followed by Ukraine. What is particularly noteworthy is that Ukrainians have struggled to integrate even into Slavic societies such as those in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, or Poland, causing significant economic and criminal problems wherever they go,

− the expert pointed out. 

Ukrainians Have No Plans to Return

After the war, Ukraine will need a massive workforce to rebuild, but Ukrainians living in the West have little interest in returning, while those still in the country are eager to flee.

The current population figures can only be estimated, but it is a fact that many Ukrainian men who had the means to escape have done so. Recently, even 18-year-olds have been registered for conscription, and entire classes of 17-year-olds—one year before their high school graduation—are leaving Ukraine. This has led to an extremely low birth rate. While the Ukrainian government is making every effort to lure back its citizens after the war, experience shows that the vast majority of those who move to the West and experience the higher living standards will rarely return,

− Mr. Nogradi explained. Attempts to bring Ukrainian men back from Poland have also failed, and the Ukrainian military faces an extreme shortage of personnel.

Poland has established a center where any Ukrainian from Europe can sign up for military training and return to the front. While large numbers were expected, only a few hundred showed up, and ultimately just over a thousand agreed to return to combat. This demonstrates the dire state of Ukraine’s demographics. On top of that, the fighting continues, and even members of Ukraine’s ruling party in parliament are speaking out against the practice of forcibly rounding up men on the streets and dragging them into military service. Reports indicate that conscripts face brutal treatment until they sign papers stating they enlisted voluntarily. Once sent to the frontline, their chances of survival are minimal,

− Mr. Nogradi detailed.

Zelensky’s Popularity Has Plummeted

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is doing everything he can to secure more weapons and financial aid for his country, but this policy is increasingly unpopular among Ukrainians.

Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, and its demographics is almost hopeless. According to U.S. polls, Zelensky’s approval rating stands at just 4 percent, while Ukrainian surveys place it at 17 percent. Zelensky previously stated that he would call for elections once peace is achieved. However, Western countries are already looking for alternatives to succeed him—someone who can satisfy both American and Russian interests,

− Mr. Nogradi stated, stressing that Zelensky’s successor is already being sought, and - unlike the current Ukrainian president - he must be acceptable to all parties involved.

Ukraine’s EU Accession Would Be a Mistake

Both Ukraine and the European Union are pushing for the country’s accelerated membership.

According to Moscow, Ukraine cannot join NATO or possess nuclear weapons, but in principle, it could become an EU member. However, Russia believes that Ukraine’s EU accession would immediately destabilize the bloc—and they are right. Ukraine currently does not meet any of the EU’s admission criteria, yet Western Europe insists it will be granted full membership by 2030. This timeline, which was also mentioned by Ursula von der Leyen, would place Ukraine ahead of the Western Balkan states in the accession process, triggering major outrage in the Balkans,

− Mr. Nogradi explained. 

If Ukraine was granted the EU’s four fundamental freedoms—the free movement of people, goods, capital, and services—it would be disastrous for the country, as even more people would leave. At the same time, Ukraine’s actual accession to the EU remains unlikely for now. However, if it did occur, the country would gain access to financial resources that would severely damage European agriculture—especially in Hungary, the Visegrad states, and France,

− the expert noted, pointing out that Ukraine has some of the largest agricultural areas in Europe, meaning it would absorb a significant share of EU agricultural subsidies.

Europe Pays, While Russia and the U.S. Negotiate

According to UN estimates, the cost of rebuilding Ukraine will exceed $500 billion—an amount the country’s devastated economy is simply unable to generate.

It is evident that the EU's primary goal - if it decides to participate in Ukraine’s reconstruction - is to secure strategic assets. However, the truly valuable Ukrainian territories and resources will likely be divided between Russia and the United States. Washington has already signaled its interest in acquiring stakes in certain Russian mines, to which Putin responded that it is a possibility. Given the current situation, Europe's economy has suffered greatly from its forced decoupling from Russia. European industry has been severely disadvantaged, as it now pays six to seven times more for oil and gas than China or the United States. Russian gas remains technically accessible, as the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines could be restored after repairs,

− the security policy expert said, adding that the United States is thinking long-term.

A New U.S. Strategy Is in Effect

The United States has changed its strategy to drive a wedge between the two other global superpowers, China and Russia.

The U.S. is now employing some type of a ‘reverse Kissinger strategy,’ aiming to separate Russia and China. One element of this strategy is a settlement to end the Russia-Ukraine war, while another involves cooperating with Russia on every strategic issue where U.S. interests are at stake—including Iran and the Middle East. This new geopolitical approach may reduce Ukraine’s significance,

− Gyorgy Nogradi concluded.

Cover photo: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President Antonio Costa in Brussels on March 6, 2025 (Photo: AFP)