What Comes Next After BRICS Enlargement?

2024 will be an exciting year as shown by two events that took place in January: the Davos World Economic Forum and the enlargement of the BRICS group that initially included only Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In his study, Peter Goreczky, senior analyst at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, looked at the possible consequences and implications of this transformation in the global order.

Johannesburg, 2023. augusztus 24. Tanácskoznak a BRICS-országok dél-afrikai csúcstalálkozójának résztvevõi Johannesburgban az esemény zárónapján, 2023. augusztus 24-én. A legnagyobb feltörekvõ országokat tömörítõ BRICS-csoport hat új országot hívott meg a szervezetbe. Szaúd-Arábia és Irán mellett Argentína, Egyiptom, Etiópia és az Egyesült Arab Emírségek kapott meghívást 2024. január 1-jével a jelenleg Brazíliát, Oroszországot, Indiát, Kínát és Dél-Afrikát magában foglaló országcsoportba. MTI/EPA/AFP pool/Marco Longari Fotó: MARCO LONGARI / POOL

In his view, despite the initial resolve and unity of the wider West regarding the Ukraine war, the global hegemony of the US is declining, as is the global economic weight of the developed countries, and the role of the global South is strengthening. In terms of military power, for example, the US remains firmly in the lead. In terms of economic indicators, the United States' leading role is less convincing.

As a result of the process, the global order will inevitably transform in some way, so the right strategy is to accept the changed balance of power.

Peter Goreczky believes that the process unavoidably generates tensions, which makes dialogue and cooperation, and the widening of the relations between the developed and developing worlds, even more important than before. Therefore the ball is in the court of the developed world. Much of the response will depend on whether decision-makers in the capitals of the developed countries can accept that transforming the world order is not a zero-sum game.

Following the enlargement of BRICS, there is a risk that the strategic confrontation between the US and China will also have an impact on the evolution of relations between the developed and developing world. One of the key tasks is to evaluate the opportunities for cooperation between developed and developing countries in a rational manner, free from the interests of the great powers, and to formulate credible messages in support of dialogue.

The analyst highlighted that Hungary is in a special position because it is embedded in the political and economic structures linked to the developed "Nordic" countries and is also classified by the World Bank as a "high-income" country. At the same time, Hungary has a centuries-old legacy of moving away from the semi-periphery and catching up with the more developed economies of the continent. In other words, Hungary is generally ranked as a part of the developed world, while itself seeking ways of catching up to higher levels of development.

Due to its special position, Hungary could formulate messages that could facilitate dialogue and cooperation between developed and developing countries

Cover photo: Participants of the BRICS South Africa summit meet in Johannesburg on the closing day of the event, on August 24, 2023 (Photo: MTI/EPA/AFP/Marco Longari)