We've Entered a Post-Liberal Era

Donald Trump is entering the White House at a pivotal moment for the West.

Donald Trump amerikai elnök. Fotó: AFP

How did we get here?

During the last four years, the Biden administration inflicted untold harm on America’s international reputation, the integrity of its borders, the situation of public safety and even the sense of shared democracy. In each of these areas, Democrats assumed that they could exclude Trump and his supporters from the realm of polite company and from American political life as a whole. After changing the laws to enable their supporters to vote “more easily,” Democrats apparently thought that they could rule with impunity over a powerless American public.

But over the succeeding years, it became clear that the Biden administration had no plan for building American success and prosperity, or maintaining the American position in the world. Whereas Democrats had claimed that Trump was a destabilizing force on the world scene, the world quickly fell apart, beginning with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Since then, everyone has suffered from the high prices that have followed this destabilization.

Heading into the election, polls showed that 75 percent of Americans felt that the country was on the wrong track. Yet to win, Trump needed to convince a broad segment of the American population that they would be better off under his administration. This call ended up receiving the support of one of the broadest political coalitions in modern times. Even though Trump had been branded as a “racist” for years, a majority of Hispanic men voted for Trump, and Trump also achieved his best score among blacks (particularly black men), in spite of running against a black woman.

The Harris team had touted its selection of Minnesota governor Tim Walz as a brilliant pick, intended to bring a “folksy” charm (covering over Walz’s aggressive left-wing agenda). Voters saw through the deception, and the Midwestern states that have suffered from deindustrialization and despair went with Trump and his Ohio-born running mate, J D Vance.

Trump’s victory also signals a triumph for the more populist brand of conservative policies that he brought to the scene in 2016. Prior to that, the Republican Party had been dominated by neoliberal economic policy and neoconservative foreign policy. Trump rejected both of these, inaugurating the “post-liberal” era of national-interest-driven economic policy and a foreign policy of realism and restraint.

Trump’s first administration was marred by his lack of loyal personnel. Since he had just taken over the Republican Party, he had few people with him, and was surrounded by backstabbing, leaks, betrayals and refusals to implement his decisions. After the 2020 election loss, numerous groups formed to train and recruit potential new members of the next Trump administration.

At the same time, many anti-Trump neoconservatives left the Republican Party. The environment among political staff in Washington, DC, has shifted strongly toward Trump among Republicans.

The Biden administration made ordinary people feel that they were the target of an aggressive regime that sought to change the traditional nature of everyday life. During the height of the Biden administration’s “woke” regime, the LGBT ideology was in the ascendancy, and families following traditional lifestyles were made to feel excluded and strange. Major corporations leaned heavily toward the “woke” agenda, turning summertime into a never-ending “pride parade,” while pushing bizarre practices like the use of personal gender pronouns (“she/her”) across elite American institutions.

The excesses of the Biden administration caused a precipitous fall in US military recruitment. It caused conservative Americans to move out of failing liberal states such as California and seek a better life in stable, prosperous American states like Texas and Florida. The liberal elites of the Biden administration began to look completely out of touch with the concerns of ordinary life.

Conservatives also realized that, if they did not put Trump back in the White House, American civilization might really enter into a full collapse. Between 2017 and 2021, they saw that only Trump had the courage to take on the liberal media, only Trump had the courage to speak boldly for America on the world stage. 

Recall that during the 2020 campaign, Biden mostly sat in his basement (due to the COVID restrictions), delivering messages by Zoom. Harris and Walz also never developed a successful “vibe” on the campaign trail, whereas Trump’s rallies were consistently packed—often three or four times per day in different locations throughout the country. In spite of suffering two assassination attempts, Trump was determined to let nothing get in the way of his spending time with ordinary people.

What does a Trump administration portend, both in American politics and internationally?

First, Trump promised to stop the illegal immigration wave that began right at the beginning of the Biden administration. Potential migrants began aiming toward the United States in late 2020 because they knew that the Biden administration would be lax. Trump has promised to send illegal immigrants home. After all, being in the United States illegally is a crime. But it is likely that the Trump administration will start by expelling those who have committed serious criminal offenses—e.g., those connected with gangs.

Second, Trump has promised to improve the American economic situation through a focus on rebuilding American industry. This doubtless means protection for American manufacturers—for example, steelmakers. Although some suspect that America will enter a “Fortress America” protectionist mindset, it is likely that Trump will use tariffs to ease the income tax burden on ordinary Americans. He will soften the regulatory environment around American businesses, while also reducing the aggressive parts of the “green agenda.”

In his acceptance speech on Tuesday night, Trump emphasized that he would “stop the wars” and build an American military devoted to defense and protection. This direction means a pulling back from the excesses of American military adventurism over the previous two decades. With regard to the war in Ukraine, Trump has promised to end it even before he takes office. While negotiations around war are certainly more complex, the direction that Trump wants to go is clear.

Under a Trump administration, Europe will have to take care of its own needs, particularly in security, more. The Trump administration will turn its focus toward the Asia-Pacific region, where trade conflicts with China have recently dominated concerns in the US. What effect US-China trade conflict would have on Europe remains to be seen. In order for Europe to take care of itself better militarily, it needs a strong economy. The sanctions imposed by the West on Russia hurt European economies through depriving them of access to cheap energy. Therefore allowing Europe to regain its economic footing would be of crucial importance.

Over the last few years a strong alliance has been built between American and European conservatives, whereas European liberals have been harsh toward Trump. This has been reflected even in statements from German government officials as well as European bureaucrats, indicating their opposition to Trump even before he was elected. This approach has proven unwise. 

Due to the strong bond between Donald Trump and Viktor Orban, the next few years will mark a renaissance in American-Hungarian relations.

All told, Trump enters the White House in a pivotal moment for the West. A long series of terrible decisions have left Europe uncompetitive, America overstretched militarily and the West as a whole culturally weakened. A moment now exists for the West to chart a different course. With a strong ally in Washington, Hungary is now poised to play a pivotal role in shaping a saner future for the West.

The author is the head of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA)