Numbers Don’t Lie: PM Orban’s Nationwide Tour Reshapes the Race

Hungary's ruling parties could secure an absolute majority in the April 12 parliamentary election, according to a seat projection published Friday morning by the Nezopont Institute. Levente Boros Bank, the institute’s director, said the results are largely due to the mobilization efforts of the Fidesz–Christian Democrat (KDNP) alliance, in which Viktor Orban has played a major role through his nationwide tour. In contrast to this projection, left-leaning polling institutes have typically reported a significantly larger lead for the Tisza Party. According to the expert, these institutes are simply reverting to an old formula: trying to give hope to left-wing voters.

– “The success of Viktor Orban’s nationwide tour has reinforced the governing parties’ voter base and disproved claims by the leader of the Tisza Party and opposition commentators that the Fidesz–Christian Democrats (KDNP) base has shrunk and become demoralized. In reality, we see a stable and mobilizable pro-government camp, which is also reflected in the polling data,” Levente Boros Bank told our newspaper.

As previously reported, the Nezopont Institute’s seat projection indicates that Fidesz–KDNP is likely to secure an absolute majority of seats in the next parliamentary election. According to the forecast, they could win 109 out of 199 seats, meaning Viktor Orban would remain Hungary’s prime minister after the 2026 election. The Tisza Party, together with Akos Hadhazy, could obtain 81 seats, while Mi Hazank could win 8 mandates. The 199th seat may go to the Roma minority list.

Source: Nezopont Institute 

Levente Boros Bank noted that the result is not surprising given Fidesz’s consistent strength in voter mobilization during election campaigns. The first phase of this began with the collection of nomination signatures, while the party’s organization and the performance of local representatives also provide a significant competitive advantage.

Orban's Nationwide Is Performing Strongly

He said the success of mobilization has also been greatly supported by the March 15 Peace March, as the large turnout at the event contradicted left-wing claims that the governing camp had diminished or become demoralized. On the contrary, attendance was high and the atmosphere was positive.

A stop on Viktor Orban’s nationwide tour in Esztergom (Photo: Prime Minister’s Communications Office/Zoltan Fischer/MTI)

At the rallies held during his nationwide tou, PM Orban has personally refuted criticisms that he avoids public appearances: he meets people directly not only at indoor events but also at public gatherings in provincial locations. Each time, he has been greeted by large crowds, exceeding those attending events held by the Tisza Party in the same ადგილities.

Left-Wing Pollsters Merely Selling Hope

As is known, contrary to Nezopont's projection, polling institutes close to the Tisza Party have consistently published markedly higher leads for Tisza. In fact, opposition commentators no longer question a Tisza victory and are even projecting a two-thirds majority. Levente Boros Bank said

we have been in this phase since October 23, 2024, when they began, without any grounding in reality, to claim that Tisza had caught up with and then surpassed Fidesz.

When Credibility No Longer Matters

He said it was already clear at the time that those figures were unrealistic. In his view, they had a clear psychological purpose: to convince opposition voters that victory was possible. He added that this has been a recurring strategy—similar illusions were created during previous elections to persuade anti-government voters that an opposition victory was within reach. According to him, they have stayed on this path ever since, and nothing appears to have diverted them.

It appears as though the entire opposition is betting everything on a single card,

 – he noted.

Endre Hann (Photo: Laszlo Beliczay/MTI)

In this context, a previous statement by Endre Hann, head of Medián, was also telling, when he publicly said he might not continue his work in polling. “From this, one might conclude that someone planning to hang up their polling uniform in the near future no longer has anything to lose—anything goes. They can afford to make claims detached from reality in public, with the political aim of assisting the opposition by influencing public opinion,” Levente Boros Bank said.

Cover photo: Prime Minister Viktor Orban (Source: Facebook)

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