"Zelensky is planning his eventual exit"

Volodymyr Zelensky owns substantial homes and bank accounts in the West. He is undoubtedly planning his eventual departure with these in mind, Douglas Macgregor said in an interview for Magyar Nemzet. The retired US colonel says Ukraine has already done all it can and that the war has entered the "Biden phase".

Ottawa, 2023. szeptember 23. Volodimir Zelenszkij ukrán elnök a Justin Trudeau kanadai miniszterelnökkel közösen tartott sajtótájékoztatójukon Ottawában 2023. szeptember 22-én. MTI/AP/The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick Fotó: Sean Kilpatrick

The Ukrainian counter-attack has failed to deliver what was hoped for, and the rainy weather of autumn is nearing, making it impossible to carry out ground operations. Could the Ukrainians be capable of one last major offensive in the coming weeks?

Kyiv’s forces are exhausted. They can do no more than launch, small, limited attacks designed to create the illusion of remaining strength. Meanwhile, Moscow is building at least 200-300 kilometers of new rail lines according to open sources including imagery: one leg begins at Burne [in Donetsk] and terminates in Malovodne. 

This will shorten the distance from Rostov on Don to Mariupol, eliminating exposure to Ukraine frontline shelling.

A new line will run directly from Mariupol to Berdiansk on the coastline. The line will then run from Berdiansk to Melitopol. In summary, these improvements will provide redundancy to the rail logistics support to Donetsk by avoiding the Kursk bridge. Russian military rail lines (logistics) will be beyond the range of the [US] HIMARs , but still vulnerable to the [British] Storm Shadow, and, potentially, the [US] ATACAMS. However, this activity also suggests their ability to sustain an offensive on a much larger scale in the future. 

The first Abrams tanks have recently arrived in Ukraine. Can these, or even the F-16 fighters, make any difference?

No. Armies cannot be built on the fly. Armies require years of investment in human capital, as well as in force design, modernization, and training. 

Expectations of Ukrainian battlefield success were never realistic. 

In addition, the training and advice provided by NATO were a poor fit for the warfare in Eastern Ukraine.Russian military power rests on the systematic integration of strike assets—rockets, missiles, artillery, drones, and aircraft—with space- and terrestrial-based persistent surveillance. Once Russian forces halted their advance and established a defense in depth in eastern Ukraine, the Russians’ accurate, devastating firepower began swatting the attacking Ukrainian ground and air forces like flies.

You recently said that "Biden's phase" of the war is beginning. What do you mean by this?

Ukraine has done all that it can do. The Biden phase means that Ukraine has become the 51st

state of the United States in a financial, economic, and military sense. 

There's much talk about the "Ukraine fatigue", which is real and more serious than any time since the outbreak  of the war. Developments in Poland and Slovakia indicate this, and Washington is sending signals to Kyiv that unwavering support is under threat. Should Zelensky be worried?

Zelensky owns substantial homes in the West and has bank accounts to support them. I am sure he’s planning his eventual exit with these things in mind.

Retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor, former Pentagon advisor

How will the upcoming US presidential election campaign affect aid
to Ukraine?

Americans are seldom interested in anything beyond the borders of their country and, if consulted, would refrain from all overseas interventions and entangling alliances. Woodrow Wilson in 1917 and Franklin D Roosevelt in 1941 had to maneuver Americans into war with Germany and Japan, two states with which the United States had enjoyed good relations for decades. Americans wanted nothing to do with either World War One or World War Two.

The situation is no different now. 

This time the potential for bankruptcy, and debt-fueled inflation, as well as the frustration and disappointment with the Biden administration's destructive policies, argue for an end to the conflict in Ukraine, adopting something similar to the Vietnam model. But it’s premature to assume that rationality will prevail in Washington DC.

Cover photo: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Canadian Prime Minister  Justin Trudeau at a joint press conference in Ottawa, September 22, 2023 (Photo: MTI/AP/The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick)