Babis Victory Could Strengthen V4 and Patriotic Forces

All indications suggest that in the Czech Republic’s parliamentary elections, the centre-right, currently opposition movement ANO (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens) may emerge victorious. According to an expert speaking to our paper, if Andrej Babis comes to power, he plans to implement a sovereignist, patriotic policy, which could also give a new boost to Central Europe’s V4 cooperation.

Babis’ return as prime minister could strengthen patriotic policies and V4 cooperation (Photo: APA/AFP/Alex Halada)

With the success of Andrej Babis, an ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the voice of the V4 countries in Brussels could grow stronger, as Babis has consistently opposed migration, Brussels centralisation, and war-related pressures.

Andrej Babis, leader of the Czech ANO party (Photo: AFP/Michal Cizek)

A Coalition Government Likely

Andrej Babis, former prime minister and ANO leader, has repeatedly stated that he prefers a single-party government, which could potentially receive outside support from another political force to secure a parliamentary majority.

There is a strong chance of Babis winning. The question is what he will be able to do with that, because he will most likely need a coalition partner,

– Agnes Vass, research director at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, told our newspaper. 

The expert pointed out:

This also depends on the number of seats won by parties entering parliament. The winning party needs 101 seats to form a government, but Babis will probably not reach that number alone, even if ANO performs very well in the elections.

There is also a possibility that Babis may opt for a minority government. 

With external support from various potential coalition or allied parties, minority governance is conceivable.

Babis’s Plan: Pragmatic Foreign Policy, Sovereignist Domestic Policy

During Andrej Babis’ premiership, Prague is also expected to pursue a much more pragmatic foreign policy line. ANO would not leave the European Union, and President Petr Pavel has indicated that he will not appoint ministers from parties planning to exit the EU, if such nominations occur, 

 – Ms. Vass emphasized. 

For Czechs, the EU Green Deal is a major question. The Czech nation, proud of its automotive industry, is very sensitive to industry-related issues.

Under the Fiala government, the Czech Republic moved away from cheap Russian energy, drastically increasing energy costs. On this issue, as well as on migration, Babis and ANO hold firm opinions: they do not support the EU migration pact or related policies, and their programme explicitly rejects parallel societies.

Ms. Vass confirmed that Andrej Babis plans to implement sovereignist and patriotic policies, which will likely also be reflected in issues related to the budget.

Slovak PM Robert Fico, Polish PM Donald Tusk, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, and Czech PM Petr Fiala ahead of the Visegrad Group (V4) meeting in Prague, February 27, 2024 (Photo: AFP/Michal Cizek)

Potential Strengthening of the V4

The expert also noted that Babis’ return could bring new opportunities for the V4.

Andrej Babis has repeatedly emphasised the importance of V4 cooperation, confirming this at the end of his campaign. It is highly likely that cooperation at a sectoral and high-political level could begin in these countries on issues such as migration, EU competitiveness, and other major EU matters.

And all this could be important not just for Hungary, but also for Poland, which is moving to the right under President Nawrocki.

It may even present an attractive and sympathetic alternative for cooperation in Poland,” Ms. Vass concluded.

– Ms. Vass concluded.

Cover photo: Babis’ return as prime minister could strengthen patriotic policies and V4 cooperation (Photo: APA/AFP/Alex Halada)