Ukraine’s EU Accession Is Dangerous for All Europe

Hungary cannot support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated this in an interview with TV2. According to the Hungarian head of government, Brussels is about to commit a historic mistake by trying to integrate into the EU a country that is at war and poses serious risks in terms of public safety, public health and economic stability.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (Photo: AFP)

Viktor Orban declared: “If the Ukrainians are admitted, the war will also be brought into the Union as well." The prime minister emphasized that Hungary has a dozen concerns about Ukraine’s membership – ranging from agriculture to corruption and even intelligence attacks – and neither Brussels nor Kyiv has provided satisfactory answers. That is why the Hungarian government initiated a national consultation vote on the matter, stressing that decisions about the future of an entire continent must not be made irresponsibly.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban draws attention to the dangers of Ukraine's EU accession (Photo: MTI)

Ukraine’s Accession to Bring Massive Security Risks

If Ukraine becomes a full member of the European Union, it would mean a war-torn country adjacent to Hungary would be within the Schengen Area. This alone would pose a serious threat to Hungary’s security, according to Orban, who also added that the greatest risks would stem from uncontrolled migration and a dramatic decline in public safety. With the disappearance of the border, millions of Ukrainian citizens would likely appear in Hungary, many not intending to integrate but rather fleeing war and economic despair.

Millions of Ukrainian migrants will appear here. If there is no border between the two countries, everything is at risk,

Orban pointed out, adding:

The activity of the Ukrainian mafia is well known in Hungary. Public safety can no longer be guaranteed.

The warnings by the Hungarian government are backed by intelligence reports and security analyses. Intelligence expert Laszlo Foldi has stated that Ukraine’s criminal underworld is historically among the most brutal in the world, and that trained but demobilized soldiers could easily join these groups after the war.

Europe will receive the actual war from Ukraine, because the Ukrainian mafia and unemployed soldiers will turn to organized crime across Europe, 

he warned. According to the GITOC (Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime) crime index, even before the war, Ukraine was among the world’s most affected by organized crime — ranked 34th out of 193 countries, and 3rd worst in Europe. Eastern criminal gangs are already active in major Western European cities. Sweden, Germany, and Belgium are seeing frequent gang wars, bombings and executions.

Should Ukraine become an EU member, these problems will intensify, and Hungary could become a frontline state against international crime with the border removed. 

Border guards, police, and intelligence forces are already stretched beyond their limits, and a borderless Schengen situation with Ukraine would impose unmanageable burdens. 

Hungarian Farmers and Rural Livelihoods Would Be Endangered

Ukraine’s EU accession would fundamentally shake Hungarian agriculture. The government has a clear stance: allowing a country into the internal EU market that produces cheap goods, often ignoring EU regulations, would put Hungarian farmers at a fatal competitive disadvantage. PM Orban also noted that farmers are heading to Brussels to protest “because it would destroy European agriculture.”

This is not a theoretical danger. After the outbreak of the war, the EU temporarily liberalized Ukrainian agricultural exports, which led to a flood of cheap, often unregulated Ukrainian grain in Central Europe.

With sea ports blocked, land shipments began, and Hungarian, Polish, and Romanian farmers immediately felt the impact. The Hungarian government responded with temporary import bans on Ukrainian produce – a tool that would disappear if Ukraine became a full EU member. Agriculture Minister Istvan Nagy stated the situation is even worse. 

Ukraine’s vast, foreign-owned mega-farms — often spanning thousands of hectares and operating industrially — are fundamentally at odds with the EU's small- and medium-sized farm model.

If these players enter the EU support system, 

not much would be left for Hungarian farmers — the money would go to Ukraine, or rather to the large foreign corporations and banks that actually own them,

Currently, Hungarian farmers receive the highest national co-financing rate in the EU (80%). This is vital support, but Ukraine’s rapid admission could endanger both farmers’ livelihoods and Hungary’s safe food supply. Minister Nagy stated the stakes are nothing less than the safety of "what winds up on on Hungarian families' dinner tables"

Healthcare collapse to threaten Europe

A dramatic deterioration in public health is another risk that Brussels is ignoring, even though it would directly impact Hungary and the EU if Ukraine joins. Ukraine is currently unable to guarantee public health safety, and several infectious diseases are spreading rapidly — most notably HIV, now one of the country’s most severe issues. Estimates say over 250,000 people have HIV in Ukraine, many of whom are undiagnosed and go untreated, unintentionally spreading the virus.

According to the UN and other international organizations, Ukraine currently has the most severe HIV epidemic in Europe. 

Most new infections are among 15–24-year-olds, and cases are increasing among children, mainly through mother-to-child transmission.

Oxford University research links Ukraine’s internal migration of 1.7 million people due to the war as a key driver of the epidemic. The main hotspots are Donetsk and Luhansk, but western Ukraine – near Hungary – is now also affected.

To make matters worse, in fall 2023, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry removed asymptomatic HIV-positive individuals from the list of those exempt from military service. 

This means infected soldiers are being deployed to the front lines without adequate healthcare, tracking and means of protection. Intravenous drug use and illegal prostitution are also widespread in Ukraine, further accelerating the spread of the epidemic. 

The situation is particularly dire for women. Due to dire economic conditions, many are forced into sex work, often because of addiction or violence.

The UN reports that 7 out of 10 Ukrainian women are at risk of sexual violence, especially in war zones. This violence, and mistrust in the healthcare system, means many avoid seeking medical help, leading to individual tragedies and exacerbating threats to public health.

Viktor Orban stated plainly:

If there is no border between the two countries, everything is at risk,

warning that pandemics are no exception. Admitting a country with uncontrolled infections would have unpredictable consequences for Hungarian healthcare and public health.

Corruption, Blackmail, Authoritarianism – Ukraine Not Ready for EU membership

One of Hungary’s main objections is Ukraine’s endemic, systemic corruption. According to Orban, this isn’t just a moral issue — it poses severe economic risks. Integrating a country lacking rule of law or transparency could have disastrous consequences for Hungary’s economy. Hungary has already suffered over €20 billion in indirect losses due to the war, and now common EU funds could be at risk.

Recent scandals involving classified contracts, fictitious public procurements, threats to business owners and mountains of cash highlight the situation.

 In early 2025, Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau ad Special Anti-Corruption General Attorney found millions of dollars hidden in shopping bags in Kyiv officials’ homes, linked to fictitious procurement and land privatization deals.

These are not isolated cases, but routine in a country ranked 104th in the world by Transparency International’s corruption index. 

The military faces repeated scandals, with millions paid for non-existent mortar grenades and recruitment committees issuing fake disability exemptions for money. Entire rings have been established in some areas to evade mandatory recruitment, while in other areas young men are being accosted on the streets and dragged off to serve.

Meanwhile, elite neighborhoods and luxury estates remain untouched.

The private sector is also unsafe — foreign investments have been seized without court rulings, often under political orders. A notable case involved the I&U Group, which was harassed by police and had assets confiscated. The EBRD, which had financed their green energy project, protested, warning such behavior undermines the EU’s investment environment.

President Zelensky himself admitted that of the $177 billion in US aid, Ukraine can only account for $75 billion.

The rest is officially “missing.” Meanwhile, the Ukrainian state invested large sums in US bonds — suggesting aid money may have flowed back to donor countries’ financial markets instead of helping Ukraine. This operational logic is incompatible with European Union values and directly counters the fundamental principle that common EU funds are to be used fairly and transparently. According to Viktor Orban:

So far we have received no answers, no guarantees — nothing — from Brussels or anywhere else about how the Hungarian economy is supposed to survive this integration.

Therefore, he said: “Ukraine must not be admitted into the European Union — not quickly, not slowly, not at all — until these issues are satisfactorily resolved.”

Hungary targeted: Ukrainian intelligence behind smear campaign

Ukraine’s EU accession poses not only economic and societal risks but also an increasing diplomatic confrontation. Mr. Orban stresses, it is unacceptable for a NATO member — Hungary — to be targeted by disinformation intelligence operations from a non-NATO country at war — Ukraine. He said that while Brussels pushes for Ukraine’s rapid accession, Kyiv shows no willingness to resolve bilateral disputes, particularly regarding the rights of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia.

Instead, Ukraine pursues its goals through smear campaigns, blackmail, and intelligence tactics.

Trust has completely broken down after the Transcarpathian spy scandal. According to Jozsef Horvath, head of the Sovereignty Protection Research Institute, the recordings made public in the scandal were clearly produced on political orders and are not part of a genuine criminal proceeding. He pointed out that the Ukrainian intelligence service did not release any official documentation about the arrest, and the recording was published with deliberate timing for political purposes.

The goal of the intelligence intervention is clear: to undermine Hungary’s international credibility, stir up domestic political tensions, and obstruct our country's sovereign stance in the debate over Ukraine’s EU membership.

According to the investigation by the National Security Committee, the videos allegedly showing Hungarian spies were recorded weeks before they were made public, which rules out coincidence. Mate Kocsis, Fidesz parliamentary group leader, pointed out that the Ukrainian side launched a deliberate, coordinated disinformation campaign, carefully timed to align with attacks coming from Hungary’s domestic political sphere.

According to the Sovereignty Protection Office, the Ukrainian intelligence operation followed just one day after the leaked audio recording released by opposition Tisza Party chief Peter Magyar, in which Hungary was accused of preparing for war.

The linking of these two incidents clearly shows that this was not a spontaneous development, but a politically coordinated action. The investigation by the Ministry of Defense also revealed that Lieutenant General Romulusz Ruszin-Szendi — who represented Hungary at NATO Chiefs of Staff meetings — did not convey Hungary's anti-war stance and, according to some documents, even reported to Brussels about things that were never said.

The Hungarian government's position is clear: the prerequisite for starting accession talks must be that Ukraine normalizes its relations with its neighbors and, in particular, guarantees the rights of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia.

Until that happens — as Prime Minister Viktor Orban put it — “there is no way they can ever join the European Union.” In the interview, the PM emphasized that Hungary is capable of and will defend itself from any kind of intervention operation:

We have at our disposal the institutions that are well known in other European countries as well, and we know how to counter foreign state intervention, we know how to uncover cooperation between domestic political or media actors and an external state,

 he stated.

Cover Photo: Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (Photo: AFP)