Geopolitical expert Andras Kosztur assessed Volodymyr Zelensky’s Paris meeting with members of the so-called coalition of the willing for our newspaper. As he explained, even after the talks it remained unclear what European countries actually want to achieve.
The historian stressed that Ukraine is seeking guarantees for the postwar period, including the stationing of Western military forces on Ukrainian soil.
Zelensky and his team see this as a kind of safeguard in exchange for giving up NATO membership, and perhaps even as a broader guarantee than that,
– Mr. Kosztur said. At the same time, he reminded that Russia has made it clear such an arrangement would be unacceptable, and thus could not even be raised in peace talks. While European countries show a willingness to continue supporting Ukraine, they cannot agree on specifics.
Without American support, they no longer appear nearly as bold as their statements would suggest,
– the expert pointed out, adding that EU member states would like to see the Americans share responsibility for a Western military presence in Ukraine.
The United States, however, has not yet stated whether it would support such a mission,
– he emphasized. He added that the same applies to sanctions, as the European Union and Washington are each trying to prod the other into taking greater steps. According to the historian, the continent’s room for maneuver is limited.
After the Paris talks, we heard the same statements we did six months ago—in reality, they made no progress,
– he said. In his view, although new sanctions and aid packages may be introduced, they will not have a meaningful impact on the course of the war.
Mr. Kosztur identified Europe’s greatest risk as the loss of its strategic weight. He said that although American–Russian talks reduce the danger of a global war breaking out, the risk of being drawn in remains, especially if some countries were to deploy troops to Ukraine.
Europe has, in effect, been left on its own. It has no truly good relations with any major power and cannot exploit current shifts in the world order to its own advantage,
– the geopolitical expert said. He emphasized that a more independent European policy would not be a bad idea, but leaders seem unable to break away from the direction set during the era of American hegemony. Mr. Kosztur argued that the EU needs a change of course.
Its ideological approach should be replaced by a realistic political perspective, and pragmatic relations should be established with the key international players,
– he said.
Cover photo: Volodymyr Zelensky and Ursula von der Leyen (Photo: AFP)
