Key to Peace Lies in Reintegrating Russia into Europe – Exclusive Interview with Renowned American Professor Hall Gardner

Hall Gardner, Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the American University of Paris, explained in an interview with Magyar Nemzet why he believes the war can only end through compromise and why Ukraine must accept certain losses if it wants lasting peace. Gardner, one of the most respected analysts in international politics, predicted the danger of a Russia–Ukraine war as early as 1994 and 1997 in his first two books. He now speaks about how the world could move toward a new security architecture before the current arms race becomes irreversible. The expert also praised Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s peace mission, calling Hungary’s efforts a step in the right direction.

Hall Gardner, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the American University of Paris (Photo: Zoltan Havran)

The war is "not entirely frozen," even if it appears so in some areas, Professor Emeritus Hall Gardner says. He believes the Russian army is using a "meat-grinder" tactic to advance, particularly around the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, which he described as a strategic focal point. He said that if the Russians manage to surround and control the city, they will gain access to the entire Donbas.

Hall Gardner, American political scientist and professor emeritus at the American University of Paris (Photo: Zoltan Havran)
 

The professor argues that Moscow believes it can continue its offensive, which is why it is not yet seeking a serious settlement.

Putin’s main goal at the moment is occupying Pokrovsk,

he told our paper. He added that the front line remains dynamic because both sides are attacking each other’s infrastructure to destroy logistics, which can occasionally lead to breakthroughs.

As winter approaches, Gardner expects the fighting to slow down, just as it did during the Yugoslav wars. "Things usually quiet down in winter," he explained. He believes Russia’s current strategy is to target Ukraine’s energy facilities, hoping that the population will become angry and turn against the government.

Trump’s Strategy and the Chance of Peace

The professor believes Donald Trump’s goal is to put pressure on Russia while restraining Ukraine, forcing both sides toward compromise. He argues that the U.S. president deliberately withheld Tomahawk cruise missiles from Kyiv. "The idea of providing Tomahawks to Ukraine was extremely dangerous," Gardner said, adding that Trump’s decision not to do so was correct.

According to the latest reports, the Pentagon has approved the potential transfer of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, having determined that doing so would not jeopardize U.S. weapons reserves. Trump, however, decided against it. As Magyar Nemzet previously reported, Trump stated aboard Air Force One that 

he is not planning to sell Tomahawks to NATO nations that would transfer them to Ukraine.

The professor recalled that Russia had warned Washington that if Ukraine received such weapons, Moscow would deploy its "new nuclear missile capabilities."

Gardner cautioned that transferring Tomahawks could have triggered "a full-scale arms race." He emphasized that the New START Treaty (New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) expires in February 2026. If it is not renewed, the world could drift into "the greatest arms race in human history."

He believes the next six months will be crucial. "By February, the United States, NATO, Ukraine, and Russia must find some form of compromise," he said.

Accepting Losses and the Price of Neutrality

Professor Gardner argues that Ukraine must accept that it has lost some territories, "just as Finland did during the Cold War." The solution lies in neutrality.

Ukraine must remain a neutral country, joining neither NATO nor the Russian CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization),

he said.

For a possible settlement, Gardner envisions international peacekeepers deployed along the front line under a general UN mandate to ensure that Ukraine does not pose a threat to Russia, while remaining strong enough to defend itself.

According to the professor, both sides must reach a mutually acceptable stalemate that stops the bloodshed. He added that Trump’s role could prove decisive, as he "has the ability to restrain Ukraine while convincing Russia not to advance further."

China, India, and the Emerging World Order

The international relations expert views the war as part of a broader "emerging polycentric world system" — a term he prefers to "multipolar," which he rejects for suggesting equality among centers of power. "The world system has never been truly multipolar," he said.

Gardner says China is a real industrial and financial power that is "building up enormous military capital," while Russia is "a military but not an economic power." He believes China is balancing between the United States and Russia, finding Russian energy supplies vital, as Beijing fears a possible U.S. maritime blockade.

China is benefiting from this war,

the political scientist said, explaining that Beijing is motivated by the way the Russia–West conflict distracts attention from Taiwan. He described India as "caught between two fires": New Delhi wants to remain neutral, yet U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are forcing it to "rethink its previously poor relationship with China."

"If India and China reconcile and cooperate economically within the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), it would become the world’s most populous economic bloc," Gardner warned.

Venezuela’s Role

According to Professor Gardner, the toppling of Venezuela’s regime could significantly influence the course of the war, since "the country holds vast oil reserves that it cannot exploit due to U.S. sanctions." He believes Donald Trump hopes that, following a potential regime change, the country could be opened to American investment.

Gardner said that CIA activity in the region is an "open secret," and that U.S. military presence there is expanding. "The official justification is the fight against drug trafficking, but that is not the real objective," he stated. In his view, energy has become a geopolitical weapon, and Washington’s goal is to "cut off China and Russia from alternative sources and markets."

Frozen Russian Assets and Europe’s Dilemma

The professor sharply criticized the EU and U.S. plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war effort. "This sets an extremely dangerous legal precedent, because afterward, anyone could seize anyone else’s property," he warned.

He argued that such decisions undermine global economic trust and may encourage other states to "do the same to the West."

In July this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Magyar Nemzet that one of Russia's preconditions for resolving the conflict is for the West to drop its legal actions against Moscow and return "unlawfully seized assets":

"Sustainable solution cannot be achieved without eliminating the underlying causes of the conflict. It is crucial to remove threats to Russia’s security caused by NATO expansion and dragging Ukraine into this military bloc. It is no less important to ensure human rights in the territories that remain under control of the Kiev regime, which since 2014 has been destroying everything that is related to Russia, Russians, or Russian-speaking people, including the Russian language, culture, traditions, canonical Orthodox Christianity, and Russian-language media."

There must be international legal recognition of the new territorial realities arising from the inclusion of Crimea, Sevastopol, and Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic, as well as the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions into Russia. These people decided on their future by freely expressing their will during the referendum. Our agenda includes demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, lifting sanctions on Russia, rescinding all lawsuits against Russia, and returning the unlawfully seized Western-based assets.

"These provisions must be included in a legally binding agreement for peaceful settlement. Ukraine should return to the origins of its statehood and adhere to the spirit and letter of the instruments that formed its legal basis. As a reminder, the provision on Ukraine’s neutral, non-aligned, and nuclear-free status is enshrined in the 1990 Declaration of its state sovereignty. In August 1991, the Verkhovnaya Rada adopted the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine, reaffirming the inviolability of the provisions of this Declaration. Reference to the Act of Declaration of Independence is included in the preamble of the applicable Constitution of Ukraine," Sergey Lavrov explained in the interview by Tamas Antal Toth.

Gardner: Hungary’s Peace Initiative Is the Right Direction

Hall Gardner believes Europe is "caught between the United States and Russia." He noted that Britain, France, and Germany are attempting to coordinate their military strategies more closely, while Poland has launched rapid rearmament — in his view, as a reaction to "the perceived Russian threat and fears that America may turn its back on Europe."

"The Americans might indeed turn away from Europe, so the EU must strengthen its own military capabilities," he said.

Professor Gardner took the view that Hungary’s peace initiative is the right approach, because "someone needs to talk to Russia." Diplomacy, he stressed, is about dialogue "and if you don’t talk to the other side, you will never reach a compromise." He emphasized that Hungary is "absolutely right to play a mediating role between the United States, Europe, and Russia." Gardner also remarked that the International Criminal Court (ICC) is not a truly universal institution and primarily focuses on Africa.

The professor warned that even a possible fall of Vladimir Putin would not guarantee peace, because "someone even worse could come after him," noting that hardline revanchists remain influential within Russia.

Hall Gardner argues that the most dangerous course of action is isolating Russia (Photo: Zoltan Havran)

The Spread of War and a New Arms Race

Gardner said the war is taking place not only in Ukraine, but is "slowly becoming a global conflict." He noted the cooperation between North Korea and Russia, and that the conflict "is also spilling over into Venezuela."

This could even escalate into a war of major powers. Each state will take different steps if it feels it can gain an advantage by expanding the conflict,

he said.

The professor calls this process the "insecurity–security dialectic,"in which "one incident generates new uncertainty elsewhere," triggering further waves of rearmament. He noted that while most European countries "do not want war, they are already preparing for it."

The Future of Europe: Federation or Loose Alliance?

 The political scientist says Europe must remain united, but "it cannot become a vassal of the United States." He believes French President Emmanuel Macron has taken the wrong path by moving toward "super-strong European federalism."

I believe in a form of unity that shares certain strategic commitments but leaves greater autonomy to individual nations,

he said.

The professor believes Europe’s right- and left-wing political forces must seek compromise to “keep Europe together,” particularly in the field of defense.

Kaliningrad and the Geography of Peace

In Gardner’s view, one of the keys to long-term peace lies in regional economic integration. 

Kaliningrad needs to be transformed into trade hub where the Polar Silk Road, Eurasian routes, and trade from Ukraine can link with Western Europe,

he said, adding that demilitarizing the city and transforming it into a commercial center "could bring Russia closer to Europe," thereby reducing the risk of future conflict.

The professor emphasized that "there are greater benefits to ending the war," and that, in the long run, Ukraine, too, could profit from deeper regional economic cooperation.

Young Men Are Dying Pointlessly

Professor Gardner says that the time has come for both sides to recognize that the war must end. "All right, that's enough."

In his view, if the conflict does not end within the next six months, "everything will explode and spread further." He underlined that prolonging the war only produces more victims and that "young men are dying pointlessly."

"The most dangerous thing is isolating Russia," the professor said, pointing out that the key to peace is reintegrating Russia into Europe. If that succeeds, "the chance of another conflict will be smaller, and the world will become a safer place."

Cover photo: Hall Gardner, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the American University of Paris (Photo: Zoltan Havran)