Gyorgy Nogradi: Crises Persist

LAST WEEK’S EVENTS – The EU is working on the 19th sanctions package against Russia at full speed.

Summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (Europress/AFP/Andrew Caballero-Reynolds)

Local elections were held in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine–Westphalia. The CDU managed to win, but lost one percentage point compared to previous elections: with 33.3 percent, the conservative party came out as the relative winner. This was the first state election since the new CDU/CSU–SPD coalition government took office in May. Chancellor Merz’s position in Berlin has been strengthened. The Social Democrats, SPD, came in second with 22.1 percent, which is a two-point decline. Both parties described the results as a success.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the third largest force, receiving 14.5 percent. In the previous elections in 2020, it had only 5.1 percent. The party effectively tripled its vote share and proved that it can succeed not only in the eastern states, the former GDR.

Currently, there is what is called a firewall against the right-wing party in German politics. There is agreement that no one will cooperate with the AfD in a bid to isolate the party. We will see how long this effort remains successful.

The Greens, with 13.5 percent, were the real losers, dropping by 6.5 percent. The party’s new leadership has so far failed to provide a program that broad segments of the population can embrace and support. The leftist party has no charismatic leaders, and this is reflected in their performance and results. The communist successor party, Die Linke, entered the state parliament with 5.6 percent, while the declining liberal party (FDP) fell below the threshold with 3.7 percent.

The situation in the national elections was similar. The Linke could enter, the FDP fell out. Next year the eastern states will also hold elections. According to surveys, the AfD is leading by a wide margin there. German polls in September showed if national elections were held today, both the CDU/CSU and AfD would receive 26 percent. The advantage of the conservative parties has disappeared. The effects of this will become clear in the coming weeks and months.

The war in Ukraine leaves its mark on everything. Kyiv is requesting more weapons and even more money. The US is only ready to supply them if Western Europeans pay. Ukraine's leadership expects the war to last for years, and a strange future is unfolding.

Part of NATO and the EU supports Kyiv without reservation, increasing both financial and military aid. Ukraine announced that next year its budget deficit will be 16 billion US dollar. It expects not only this support from the West, but also anticipates that in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement, Western military forces would be stationed on the future Russia–Ukraine border and that Ukraine will need to maintain large armed forces for years, with Western support.

In recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has further increased anti-Russian rhetoric. He called on ethnic minorities living in Russia — Tatars, Kalmyks, Bashkirs, and Yakuts — to secede from Russia and become independent countries, with Ukraine's support. Moscow has not yet responded. These national minorities also live in Ukraine, though in much smaller numbers.

Sweden, which is struggling with serious internal problems due to mass migration, will increase its military spending by 18 percent in 2026.

The European Union is working at full speed on the next, 19th package of sanctions against Russia. One of the goals is to drive Russian tourism out of Europe. While these measures are supported by northern and eastern European countries, southern countries such as Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, and Greece, which rely on tourism as their main source of income, oppose them.

Brussels has revisited the issue of seizing Russian assets in the West and gradually transferring them to Ukraine. The idea is that Ukraine would later repay these from postwar Russian reparations. How realistic this proposal is remains a question. Russia's response is that this is unacceptable to Moscow, and it will take appropriate countermeasures.

Under US pressure, the EU demands that the Nord Stream gas pipeline remain shut down in the future. This seriously jeopardizes German interests. It also assumes that Europe will buy more expensive US shale gas rather than cheaper Russian natural gas.

Brussels, again under US pressure, is considering measures against China and India, as both countries buy large amounts of Russian raw materials. It is clear that any action would trigger countermeasures.

Poland has closed its shared border with Belarus. Originally, the measure was only for the period of the Russia–Belarus joint military exercise, but it was later extended. A significant portion of EU–China rail traffic, worth 25 billion US dollars annually, passes through this border. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski announced that security logic has replaced trade logic. If the decision and border closure remain, Chinese countermeasures are expected. A new southern rail route or increased maritime shipments could be considered.

In the Middle East, tensions increased further after the bombing of Qatar. Arab and Muslim leaders at a meeting in Qatar uniformly condemned Israeli policies. They imposed an arms embargo and called for the suspension of Israel’s UN membership. Even Arab states that previously maintained ties with Israel, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, have turned away.

A growing number of Western countries have announced that they will recognize the Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September. The United Kingdom has done so as well. At the US–UK summit — alongside many successful agreements — no common position emerged on either the Russia–Ukraine war or the situation in Israel.

The UK announced that due to the Middle East situation, it will not host Israeli soldiers for further training in 2026. The EU is planning joint action against Israel. Germany is extremely cautious, partly due to historical reasons, and will formulate its position in the coming days. While the practical impact of more and more countries recognizing Palestine is small, it carries great moral significance.

The Gaza war shows no quick resolution in sight. The United States continues to firmly support Israel, meaning it can offset actions against Israel. At the UN, the US is likely to veto any potential sanctions.

The UN General Assembly will convene in the coming days, where numerous important bilateral talks are expected. Perhaps in some cases, with results.

The author is a security policy expert