Druzhba Pipeline: Russian Oil Could Arrive via Alternative Route

Russian oil could soon reach Hungary through the Adriatic pipeline instead of the usual route. Conflicting reports have emerged about the shutdown of the Druzhba oil pipeline, and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter Szijjarto, together with Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Sakova, has sent a joint letter to Croatia's government to ensure that, if necessary, oil imports can also arrive via the Adriatic route.

Targeting the Druzhba oil pipeline carries a political message for Budapest (Source: AFP)

Several factors complicate the picture:

• the absence of clear Ukrainian communication about restarting transit,
• the lack of official Russian statements on the issue,
• and the absence of a formal statement from MOL, which is awaited by the business daily Vilaggazdasag.

Perhaps MOL’s silence speaks volumes. If there were a serious disruption in Hungary’s oil supply, the company — as a publicly listed firm — would be obliged to report it. Any such disruption could, however, be avoided by ramping up imports via the Adriatic route.

Energy market expert Jozsef Balogh reiterated his earlier statement to Vilaggazdasag: unlike electricity and gas deliveries with real-time data anyone can access on an ongoing basis, oil transmission is not transparent. In fact, we do not know where the oil comes from, where it goes, or how much of it arrives. We can only rely on announcements. 

Assuming Ukraine is indeed working to restart deliveries via Druzhba as soon as possible, it could request assistance from Hungary, which has a direct interest in transit. Hungarian authorities could likewise offer support. This would not be unprecedented: the Hungarian grid operator Mavir has previously assisted in repairing Ukraine’s electricity network damaged in the war.

While there is no public information about the exact role Hungary’s system operator is playing in restoring Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure, it is well known that maintaining the functionality of Ukraine’s power grid is a shared interest. During summer months, large quantities of electricity flow from Ukraine, while in winter Hungarian electricity traders export even larger volumes to Ukraine.