New World Order, New Opportunities: The First Year of the Trump–Orban Era

One year ago, on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump took his second presidential oath of office, ushering in a new era in the world order and in Hungarian-American relations. The alignment between the US President and the Hungarian Prime Minister on principles and and global politics provides Hungary a strategic advantage. The Trump–Orban alliance could provide Hungary with a historic strategic advantage and help Hungary join the winners in the second quarter of the 21st century, according to an analysis by the Center for Fundamental Rights.

Donald Trump and Viktor Orban (Photo: MTI)

Donald Trump's return signals the decline of the liberal international order and the emergence of a new global system. In this situation, Hungary’s chances to enforce its grand strategy are strengthened by the fact that the world’s leading power is not opposed to Hungary’s success. Parallel to the liberal world order, a sovereigntist-nationalist axis is gaining strength, to which Hungary connected at an early stage. The gradual weakening of the global institutional system established after the Second World War and the strengthening of a new structure offer opportunities such as founding membership in the Gaza Peace Council, which could represent a position of historic significance for Hungary.

 Donald Trump and Viktor Orban (Photo: Center for Fundamental Rights)

Peace is of key importance to Hungary from both a national strategic and economic perspective, particularly in the Central European region. Unlike Brussels, the new US administration recognizes the need to bring protracted wars to an end, in which Hungary is a committed partner in Europe, the Center for Fundamental Rights writes in its analysis.

A successful peace process would increase Hungary’s strategic gains.

Washington interprets the problems of the Western world primarily as civilizational and cultural challenges, in contrast to the European mainstream, which continues to treat migration, multiculturalism, and gender-ideological approaches as defining issues. The European elite is more and more openly intervening in Hungarian domestic politics in order to weaken the sovereignty-based Hungarian–American cooperation.

The economic impacts of the first 365 days of the Trump era are also significant. Talks are underway on an American financial protection mechanism, corporate partnerships are strengthening, US investments are arriving in Hungary, and cooperation is developing in the fields of energy and science.

Hungary has received exemptions from US sanctions affecting Russian energy companies, contributing to supply security as well as to the stability of utility and fuel prices.

Donald Trump’s first year has redrawn power relations in Europe and globally, and institutionalized the Trump–Orban era. The Washington meeting closed a period of conflict and placed defense, energy, financial, and trade cooperation on strategic foundations. All of this increases Hungary’s sovereignty and regional weight, but at the same time heightens the risk of intensified political pressure coming from Brussels.

Washington is striving to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, which is in line with Hungarian interests, but the risk of European escalation continues to exist.

The ideological rift between Washington and Brussels strengthens Hungary’s bargaining position, while increasing the intensity of EU countermeasures. The migration shift provides international legitimacy to the Hungarian border protection model, while the pushback against woke ideology reduces US pressure, the focus of which is shifting to Brussels.

The new world order offers both opportunities and risks at the same time. Hungary will act correctly if it consciously expands its room for maneuver, prepares for EU counter-reactions, and remains committed to the proven sovereigntist path. A radical change of direction would endanger this historic opportunity.

Cover photo: Donald Trump and Viktor Orban (Photo: MTI)