Nezopont Poll: Fidesz at 47%, Tisza at 40%

If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday in Hungary, Fidesz would win 47 percent of the vote, while the Tisza Party would take 40 percent, according to the November poll by the Nezopont Institute.

The researchers note that since late August, the governing side has begun implementing its “victory plan,” announcing the Home Start program, the 14th-month pension, a package reducing burdens on businesses, as well as security-force bonuses and an income-tax exemption for mothers with three children. News of Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s meetings with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin also strengthened the government’s standing; at both meetings, issues central to Fidesz—protecting reduced utility costs and advancing peace in Ukraine—dominated the agenda. As a result, Fidesz rose from 46 to 47 percent between August and November in Nezopont’s party list favorability poll. Compared to late June (44 percent), the governing party is now up three points.

 

By contrast, the past three months have not gone well for the Tisza Party. It failed to introduce any agenda-setting issues, and the news cycles surrounding the party have been unfavorable—ranging from the data leak, which unsettled activists and financial backers, to the so-called “Tisza tax,” which unsettled many of its own supporters. Still, the party’s main selling point remains unchanged: it promises a change in government to anti-Fidesz voters. For this reason, Tisza has gained two points since August, largely at the expense of the satirical Two-Tailed Dog Party (KFKP). Overall, however, Tisza’s support appears to have hit a ceiling—39 percent in early summer, 38 percent at summer’s end, and 40 percent now at the end of autumn. That means that at a 75 percent turnout, Fidesz has 400,000 more voters than Tisza.

There are always voters who do not wish to support either major side. Somewhat surprisingly, the role of a “third force” is not being filled by a moderate party willing to cooperate with both blocs, but increasingly by the right-wing Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) Movement. Nezopont has long measured the party to be above the parliamentary threshold, and its most likely list result at the end of November is at 7 percent. Meanwhile, both the Two-Tailed Dog Party (KFKP) and the post-Gyurcsany Democratic Coalition (DK) would score only 3 percent each—leaving neither with a realistic chance of gaining seats in Parliament at this time.

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